Daily forex forecast 04/6/2010
:: Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar rallied after third quarter of growth data showed fifth consecutive quarter of expansion. Gross Domestic Product rose a solid 0.5% in the previous quarter in line with expectations, while yearly figures revealed the economy grew 2.7%. Yesterday’s positive outcome may pave the way for the central bank to resume raising rates in the coming months. This morning the Aussie opens at 0.8410, not far from the overnight high of 0.8425. Positive home sales data in the United States overnight bolstered the greenback against the Euro and pound helping the Aussie to open higher on the cross-rates.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8370 to 0.8470
:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound climbed to 1.4770 US towards the end of Asian trading in the build up to what was expected to be positive credit and mortgage figures for the UK. Consumer credit fell -0.1 billion while mortgage approvals surprised the market with an increase of 49.9 thousand. The mixed bag saw the Pound retreat to 1.4650 against the Greenback where it hovered for most of the night. The news suggests the British economy may continue to experience only a mild recovery. This morning the Cable opens at 1.4652 US. The Sterling also opens open lower against the Aussie and Kiwi buying 1.7411 and 2.1521 respectively.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7325 to 1.7480
:: New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi brushed past 0.6820 in last night’s rally after commodity export prices climbed 2.5% in May. Export prices have increased for 14 consecutive months signalling exports will be the driving force for New Zealand growth this year. Investors speculated a hike in interest rates may be on the table next week for New Zealand after the Bank of Canada raised rates last night. The New Zealand Dollar opens just shy of last night’s high at 0.6812 against the Greenback. Meanwhile, the kiwi opens a shade weaker against the Australian Dollar at 0.8075.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6750 to 0.6850
:: Majors: The Yen weakened in Asia yesterday following the resignation of the Japanese PM moving below what has been resistance at 92 against the Greenback trading at 92.35 overnight. In Europe a stronger than expected April Producer Prices report gave the Euro an early boost however selling emerged at 1.2270 to cap any further advances with EUR/USD pulling back to an overnight low 100 points lower at 1.2170. Risk appetite received a boost later in the session as U.S Pending Home sales surprised analysts who had forecast a 4.9% rise by increasing 6% sending North American equity markets higher. This morning sees the big dollar open in Asia exchanging at 1.2240 and 92.20 against the Euro and Yen respectively ahead of the commencement of the G20 meeting which is likely to see some comments about the European debt crisis.
:: Data Releases:
AUD: May Aig Performance of Service Index & Apr Trade Balance NZD: No Data Expected Today USD: May ADP Employment, Apr Factory Orders & May ISM Non Manufacturing GBP: No Data Expected Today EUR: Apr Retail Sales & May PMI Services JPY: Q1 Capital Spending