Daily forex forecast 18/6/2010
: Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar spent the majority of local trade yesterday above the 0.8600 cents mark as risk appetite returned to the market with high yielders the main benefactor. During the offshore session the little battler traded between 0.8578 and 0.8673 as fundamental trading took hold and the European Sovereign Debt issue and its ramifications on global growth took a back seat. On the domestic data front yesterday the release Housing Starts came in worse than expected (actual 4.3%; previous 16.8%) however its effect was minimal on the Australian Dollar during the Asian session. In offshore trade the Australian Dollar traded between 0.8578 and 0.8670.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8550 to 0.8650
:: Great Britain Pound: A raft of data out of the UK dictated Pound direction during the last 24 hours and of particular note was the Nationwide Consumer Confidence survey and the UK Unemployment rate. The Nationwide Consumer Confidence survey saw a decline with the number down 10 points from 75 to 65, indicating that the UK consumer is becoming a little bit more concerned with current and future economic conditions. On a positive note the Unemployment rate fell 0.1% from 8% to 7.9%, however the result did little to inspire the markets appetite to buy the Pound and the currency was sold down from 1.4850 to 1.4715. At time of writing the Pound Sterling is changing hands at 1.7050 against the Australian Dollar and 2.1110 against the New Zealand Dollar.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6950 to 1.7150
:: New Zealand Dollar: The release yesterday of the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Survey showed an increase yesterday with the figure coming in at 119.3, up 4.6 from the previous reading of 114.7. Any number above 100 in this survey points towards optimism in the consumer spending which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The NZ Dollar was stuck in a 1 cent range last night (0.6920/0.7000) as a mixed bag of data out of the United States saw the NZ Dollar initially rally before profit takers stepped in to curb the rally.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6920 to 0.7020
:: Majors: Rumours that Spain was in talks with the IMF (International Monetary Fund) to access a portion of the recently established EURO bailout fund to help with its debt crisis kept a lid on EUR overnight. Against the Greenback to EURO traded between 1.2253 and 1.2350. News out of the US showed that Industrial Production rose to 1.2% for the month (up from a previous of 0.9%) indicating that output is on the rise by manufacturers. It was however the Housing Start numbers that had the market talking with the report showing that housing starts for the month of May declined by almost 10% (actual 590,000; previous 660,000) with the government tax credit for new homes expiring at the end of April being partially to blame for the decline. The Big Dollar is up against both the JPY (91.38) and GBP (1.4721).
:: Data Releases: AUD: No data slated for release CAD: Wholesale Sales EUR: ECB Monthly Bulletin GBP: Retail Sales JPY: No data slated for release NZD: No data slated for release USD: Unemployment claims; Current Account; CPI