Dallas Cowboys vs. LA Rams 2017: Prediction, Betting Odds For Week 4

The Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams will face off Week 4 of the 2017 NFL season. Both teams are 2-1, sitting in first place in their respective divisions after victories last week.

The latest betting odds have Dallas favored by 7.5 points at home, via OddsShark, and the over/under is 46. Here’s a closer look at the Week 4 game, as well as a prediction against the spread:

Why the Cowboys could cover the spread

Dallas bounced back from a bad loss in Denver with an impressive win on the road, beating the Cardinals by 11 points in Arizona Monday night. They are tied atop the NFC East, having handily beaten the Giants 19-3 in Week 1.

You’ve almost got to ignore Dallas’ Week 2 loss in Denver when evaluating the Cowboys. That was a perfect storm of events, and a case of everything going wrong at once. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for just eight yards on nine attempts. A banged up Dallas secondary allowed Trevor Siemian to throw four touchdowns. They won’t play that poorly again.

Elliott was much better in Week 3, despite a surprisingly bad effort by the offensive line. He’s got a chance to have his best game of the year against Los Angeles, who has proven to be susceptible against the run at times. L.A. suffered their only loss of the season because they allowed the Redskins to rush for 229 yards. Talks that Elliott doesn’t look like the same player he was as a rookie could quickly be shut down after a big day Sunday.

As impressive as Jared Goff has been, the Cowboys have what it takes to remind L.A. of their quarterback’s first-year struggles. He hasn’t exactly excelled while facing pressure, and Dallas is second in the league with 11 sacks. They pressured Carson Palmer on 23 of his 55 dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus.

Dak Prescott didn’t have a ton of help in Arizona, but he still managed to lead Dallas to a win by making some incredible throws. His 141.7 passer rating was a season high, and he should give the Cowboys the edge at quarterback at AT&T Stadium.

Why the Rams could cover the spread

L.A. could be the best team in the NFC West. That might just be a hot take after less than a quarter of the regular season has been played, but there are several indications that the Rams are an actual playoff contender in 2017.

Following a 4-12 season, the Rams look like a completely different offense. Los Angeles has scored 107 points in three weeks after totaling just 94 points in their final eight games of 2016. They rank seventh in total yards, and no one is scoring more points per game.

Part of it is due to the system of Sean McVay, who looks like he might become one of the NFL’s best head coaches at just 31 years old. L.A.’s improved offensive line has helped Todd Gurley return to being one of the league’s best running backs, and he’s been lethal as a receiver out of the backfield. Sammy Watkins gives the Rams a legitimate No.1 wide receiver as long as he can remain healthy.

Most importantly, Goff is playing like the quarterback the Rams thought they were getting with the No.1 overall pick in the 2016 draft. His 118.2 passer rating is third in the league only behind Alex Smith and Tom Brady. He’s third in completion percentage while throwing just one interception, and he made some impressive throws under pressure in a national TV win over the 49ers last week.

Down two starters from a year ago, Dallas’ offensive line hasn’t been the dominant unit it was in 2016. It's resulted in Ezekiel Elliott averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and the Cowboys ranking 19th in total offense. Another big scoring day for the Rams could help them pull off the upset and win outright.

Prediction

The betting line has steadily been dropping over the last few days, but even 7.5 points seem like too many to be giving the visiting Rams. L.A. looks like a legitimate threat to make the postseason, while Dallas’ offense has taken a step back from the one that led the Cowboys to a 13-3 record in 2016.

Having played on Thursday night, the Rams have 10 days to prepare for the defending NFC East Champs. Dallas will be on just six days’ rest after beating Arizona on “Monday Night Football,” leaving the Cowboys susceptible to an upset.

Los Angeles over Dallas, 27-24