Dodgers vs. Astros 2017 World Series Game 6: Prediction, Betting Odds, Preview

Less than 48 hours after winning maybe the craziest game in MLB history, the Houston Astros will have a chance to win their first-ever championship. They’ll visit the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 of the 2017 World Series Tuesday night, hoping to close out the Fall Classic with their best pitcher on the mound.

L.A. couldn’t hold onto a 4-0 lead in Game 5 with their ace on the hill, though Clayton Kershaw’s poor outing was an afterthought in Houston’s 13-12 extra-inning win over the Dodgers. Another failure by Kershaw to translate his regular-season success to the playoffs was overshadowed by four blown leads, seven home runs and 317 minutes of drama-filled baseball.

Justin Verlander and Rich Hill had started what looked like it would be the best game of the series. Houston’s starter left Game 2 after giving up three runs in six innings, only to have the Astros come back from a 3-1 deficit and tie the game in the ninth inning. The Astros needed two runs in both the 10th and 11th innings to complete the 7-6 win and steal a victory at Dodger Stadium.

That was Verlander’s worst performance in an Astros uniform. After being acquired on Aug. 31, Verlander won his first nine appearances with Houston. He had a 1.06 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP in five regular-season starts. Allowing three total runs in one start and one relief appearance in the ALDS, Verlander was virtually unhittable in the ALCS, winning the series MVP award with 16 innings of one-run ball.

With the way Houston’s bats have come alive since Verlander made his exit in Game 2, the Astros could very well clinch if Verlander is anywhere close to his best.

In the 32 innings since Verlander was pulled from his last start, Houston has scored 26 runs, resembling the lineup that was MLB’s best during the regular season. George Springer and Carlos Correa both have their batting averages up to .333 in the World Series, and AL MVP candidate Jose Altuve leads all hitters with seven postseason home runs.

It’s no surprise that the Astros are slight Game 6 favorites, even though L.A. is 5-1 at home and Houston is 2-5 on the road this postseason.The Astros have -114 betting odds, via Bovada.lv, and the Dodgers have -106 odds to force a Game 7.

Houston didn’t do much against Hill in Game 2, totaling three hits and striking out seven times. They didn’t have much of a chance because the left-hander only lasted four innings.

Hill has made three starts this postseason, pitching to a 2.77 ERA, but never making it beyond the fifth inning. He went at least five innings in his final five regular-season starts, surrendering just six total runs.

Taking out the starting pitcher at the first sign of trouble was a sound strategy for manager Dave Roberts in the first two series. It hasn’t gone as planned in the World Series, and a tired Dodgers’ bullpen has been exposed against a hot offense.

Kenta Maeda gave up a three-run homer and the lead in Game 5, likely affected by the number of pitches he threw in Game 2 and Game 3. Brandon Morrow had nothing after pitching for the fifth time in six days, and even Kenley Jansen has given up a run in all three World Series appearances.

Who can Roberts trust to get big outs?

Of course, the same question can be asked of Astros’ manager A.J. Hinch, who didn’t go to closer Ken Giles with a 12-9 ninth-inning lead in Game 5. Chris Devenski blew the save, giving Houston one more reason not to be confident in their bullpen, either.

Hill hasn’t thrown more than 79 pitches in a playoff game, and he’s reached 90 pitches just twice in his last 10 starts. Verlander is used to going past 100 pitches, doing so in 13 of his last 16 regular-season starts. He threw 98 pitches, 99 pitches and 99 pitches in the other three games.

Don’t expect another bullpen battle Tuesday night. Hinch, Verlander and the Astros know that’s the best way for the Dodgers to stay alive.

Prediction: Houston over Los Angeles, 5-3