Dollar likely higher in the week ahead
* Risk aversion supports dollar on global recovery worries
* Key data includes consumer confidence, GDP and durables
* Higher-yielding currencies like Aussie may weaken
The U.S. dollar is likely to rise in the week ahead as investors seek safety amid doubts about the strength of the global recovery after a sell-off in Chinese stocks.
The Shanghai benchmark index of stocks shed 20 percent in two weeks on concerns about Chinese economic growth, rattling investor confidence in a global recovery and hurting high-yielding currencies, or those perceived as higher risk.
Although the correlation between risk tolerance and the U.S. currency is not as strong as it was, an environment of risk aversion has largely bolstered the dollar in the last year.
We continue to have Chinese equities in a sharp downturn and oil is vulnerable at current levels; said Sacha Tinhanyi, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto. Given those factors, there is some hesitancy and unless we get strong economic data, I'm looking for a neutral to supported dollar.
For the week, the euro rose 1 percent to 1.4315. The dollar fell 0.3 percent against the yen to 94.44 yen.
The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies, fell 0.9 percent to 78.117.
Still, some technical analysts emphasized that technical factors may cap any sharp advance in the greenback next week.
The recent rally in the dollar came to an abrupt halt this week, said Andrew Bekoff, chief investment strategist at Family Office Group in New York. Maybe it was the 50-day moving average which we ticked on August 17 or maybe it was just all of the attention the dollar has received, but the dollar index was not able to follow through to 80.
The economic calendar will be closely scrutinized for clues on the strength of the U.S. recovery.
Next week's data opens with the Chicago Fed index for July on Monday.
Tuesday has the release of Standard & Poor's Case/Shiller report on U.S. house prices for June. The month-over-month number is forecast to rise 0.2 percent, even though the year-over-year number is expected to decline 16.5 percent.
Later the same day, a report on U.S. consumer confidence in August is slated to post at 47.5. Wednesday's reports include July's durable goods, seen rising 3.2 percent on the headline number, and July new home sales, expected at 390,000 at an annualized rate.
Preliminary second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product is seen falling 1.4 percent in a report slated for Thursday. Initial weekly jobless claims will be another investor focus the same day.
The week will close with reports on July U.S. personal income, seen up 0.1 percent, July personal consumption, also forecast to rise 0.2 percent. and the July core personal consumption expenditure price index, expected to rise 0.1 percent.
The final August reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment surveys will be released later on Friday and is expected to post at 64.0. (Reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Dan Grebler)
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