The Week 3 “Thursday Night Football” matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins looks much more intriguing than it did at the start of the 2020 NFL season.

Pegged by some to be the worst team in the league, Jacksonville nearly put together a 2-0 start. After upsetting the Indianapolis Colts in the opener, the Jaguars came up just short to the Tennessee Titans in a 33-30 loss.

Miami hasn’t been as impressive, though they’ve been competitive against two good teams. The Dolphins lost by 13 combined points to the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills, both of whom appear to be likely playoff contenders.

The Jaguars are favored by 2.5 points, according to betting odds compiled by OddsShark. Thursday’s over/under is 47.5.

Ryan Fitzpatrick just threw for 328 yards and a triple-digit passer rating against a very good Buffalo defense. The veteran has a flair for the dramatic, and Jacksonville has lost a ton of defensive talent over the last year.

It’s just hard to bet against Gardner Minshew in this situation.

If Jacksonville planned to tank and draft Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick, someone forgot to tell the Jaguars’ quarterback. Minshew has a 115.7 passer rating. Only Minshew and Russell Wilson have thrown for at least six touchdowns and completed more than 75% of their passes through two weeks.

Rookie running back James Robinson is seventh in the NFL with 164 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry. The Jaguars rank 11th in yards per play. The Dolphins are 24th.

Home teams are 92-69-7 on Thursday nights over the last 15 years, according to OddsShark. Kansas City easily covered the spread at home on Thursday night in Week 1 in front of nearly 16,000 fans. The Cleveland Browns were victims of a backdoor cover in Week 2 when they defeated the visiting Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night.

Jacksonville can have over 14,000 fans in attendance, potentially giving them a bit of a home-field advantage. With the point spread below a field goal, the Jaguars are the clear pick.

Prediction: Jacksonville over Miami, 30-23

Gardner Minshew Jacksonville Jaguars
Gardner Minshew II #15 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs the ball in the second half of a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on September 20, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
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