Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden: New Poll In Key Swing State Could Tip Balance Of 2020 Election

Donald Trump's path to another electoral college victory hinges on about eight crucial swing states. Perhaps the most important is Florida, which carries 29 electoral votes, and appears to be very much up for grabs.

A new Monmouth University poll indicates that Democratic nominee Joe Biden holds a 50%-45% lead over Trump in Florida. In 2016, Trump carried Florida by 1.2 percentage points.

The Monmouth poll shows some important voting demographics in the state. Voters over the age of 65 are essentially split between the two, with Trump’s holding a 49% lead over Biden’s 47%.

Biden has a large advantage among voters of color and leads Trump 70%-22%. Although the lead is smaller among Latino voters, Biden holds steady at 58% compared to Trump at 32%. Biden’s Latino lead is roughly in line with Hillary Clinton’s 27-point margin in 2016.

"Biden’s current lead among Latinos is similar to Clinton’s margin four years ago. One difference, though, is how Florida’s Latino electorate has shifted since 2016. There has been an influx of residents from Puerto Rico and a growing number of young voters. These groups tend to be more Democratic, which actually suggests that Trump could be doing slightly better among older Latino voters than he did four years ago," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Trump holds a substantial lead over Biden among white voters, 56% to 39%.

However, Trump won the same group by more than 30 points in 2016. Biden’s support in central Florida and areas outside of Democrats’ traditional strongholds in the southern part of the state is stronger than Clinton’s was in 2016, Politico reports.

There appears to be some eroding faith in Trump, as 49% of the participants felt confident in Trump's ability to put the country on the road to recovery, as opposed to the 51% who are not confident. The results are similar for Biden, 49% confident and 49% not confident.

One major warning sign for the president is the level of support among military voters. Trump has a 4-point lead over Biden among veterans and those in military households. However, among all survey respondents, 70% said that Biden respects the military and veterans, compared to just 56% for Trump.

The poll was conducted shortly after a report in The Atlantic, parts of which were backed up by other outlets, that detailed accusations of Trump calling U.S. military "losers" and "suckers."

The Monmouth University poll surveyed 428 registered voters in Florida from Sept. 10-13.

Biden also leads Trump among registered voters in the key swing states of Wisconsin and North Carolina, according to CNN polls released Tuesday.

Biden holds a lead of 52%-41% among registered voters in Wisconsin and a lead in North Carolina of 49%-44%.

In North Carolina, non-white people overwhelmingly support Biden 93% to 3%. However, white voters prefer Trump 58% to 38%. Biden leads among women 55% to 42%, but Trump wins white women 55% to 42% as well as white men, 60% to 34%. Trump leads the men overall 51%-42%.

The CNN polls were conducted from Sept. 9-13 among random adults living in North Carolina and Wisconsin. In both states, the polls sampled 1,006 adults and found that 787 respondents were determined to be likely voters in North Carolina, and 816 were likely voters in Wisconsin.

According to poll aggregator Real Clear Politics, Biden also leads in the last five polls in Pennsylvania, the last three polls in Michigan and the last eight polls in Arizona. While Biden leads most Ohio polls, Trump has closed the gap in recent months. There has been no poll showing Trump leading in Minnesota.