Duterte's South China Sea Flip-Flops Keep On Haunting The Philippines

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte's administration doesn't have a firm and consistent policy against China's claims in the South China Sea that undermine Philippine sovereignty.

Instead, he sides with Washington one day and Beijing the next day, only to go back to Washington. The country has to pay a heavy price for these policy flip-flops in the form of escalating violations of its sovereignty by Beijing.

One such violation last week was when Chinese coast guard ships came dangerously close to the Philippine coast guard ships in disputed waters for the fourth time this year. Then there was the presence of hundreds of Chinese vessels near a Philippines-administered island in the South China Sea back in 2019, which raised tensions between the two countries.

In the last decade, China came to claim the South China Sea as its own by building tiny islands to assert control of the waters surrounding them.

"By 2014, China was engaged in a major campaign to create 'facts on the ground' in the South China Sea, with swarms of dredging ships pouring sand into reefs and isles on order to create multiple artificial islands, some large enough to house military-style airstrips, hangars and supply depots," wrote Kevin Rudd, author of "The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between The U.S. and Xi Jinping's China."

Beijing's "facts on the ground" policies have fueled tensions with its neighbors, who have competing claims around the islands it builds, and their allies, who advocate freedom of navigation in what they consider international waters. In 2012, Chinese vessels surrounded the Philippine-controlled Scarborough Shoal, ready to seize control of it in a dangerous confrontation with the Philippine navy. It was only after U.S. mediation that the conflict eased.

The Philippines doesn't have a concise and consistent policy in dealing with China's violations of its sovereignty, as evidenced by several flip-flops in Duterte's administration. The first flip-flop came in 2016 when the Philippines and its close ally, the U.S., won an international arbitration ruling that China has no historic title over the waters of the South China Sea.

Rather than teaming up with the U.S. to enforce the verdict, Duterte stunned foreign policy experts by walking the other way. He sided with Beijing on the dispute and sought a "divorce" from Washington. Perhaps out of fear of war or the expectation that Beijing would provide financing for the country's infrastructure projects.

Then came the second flip-flop when Duterte sided with Washington and threatened to send his troops on a "suicide mission" if Beijing didn't "lay off" a Manila-occupied island in the South China Sea.

The truth is that these flip-flops didn't deter China's aggression. They encouraged it.

China continues to assert its control over Thitu Island, also known as Pag-asa Island in the Philippines. Beijing has escalated the challenges to Manila's sovereignty. And that revives the risk of an open confrontation between the two neighbors.