Election 2020: Biden Holds Lead Over Virtual Tie For Second Between Sanders, Warren And Buttigieg

The Des Moines Register reported former Vice President Joe Biden leading Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in a virtual tie for second place with South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg, according to a new poll the newspaper conducted with Mediacom and CNN of likely caucus-goers.

Biden was the favorite with 24% of likely Democratic caucus-goers saying the former Delaware senator is their first choice for president. Sanders was the first choice for 16% of respondents while Warren was a first pick for 15% and Buttigieg the favorite of 14% respectively.

Although Buttigieg may be the real beneficiary of Saturday's poll results, since he was a virtual unknown to caucus-goers as recently as March, when he first appeared in the Iowa Poll.

J. Ann Selzer, president of the Des Moines-based, Selzer & Co., which conducted the survey said, “We’re starting to see the people who are planning to caucus start to solidify. There’s a lot more commitment than we normally see this early. And some of these candidates who’ve been under the radar start to surface and compete with Joe Biden.”

None of the other Democratic candidates in the historically large field broke into double digits. California Sen. Kamala Harris got closest with 7%, trailed by Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke with 2% each.

The poll represents the first time Iowans will be allowed to participate in a virtual caucus online or over the phone under new rules proposed this year by the Iowa Democratic Party. Results from the virtual caucuses will account for 10% of the final delegates, regardless of how many people participate.

The poll was conducted June 2-5 and sampled registered voters who plan to attend the Democratic caucuses in person, in addition to those who will attend virtually.

Respondents were asked to name their first choice for president. Responses were combined in a calculation that weighted the preferences of in-person caucus-goers at 90% and 10% to the preferences of virtual participants. The same methodology will apply on caucus night. Margin of error was plus or minus 4%.

Because the Iowa Poll’s methodology has changed, Saturday’s results cannot be directly compared to past Iowa Polls of this election cycle’s presidential field.

Biden and Sanders held leads in earlier polls last December and in March. O’Rourke held third place in December but was displaced by Warren and Harris in March when the two women rose to third and fourth place respectively.

The Iowa caucuses convene on Feb. 3, 2020.