Election 2020 Forecast: Can Trump Lose Popular Vote, Win Electoral College Again?

The 2020 elections may see another historic win for President Donald Trump as a new poll suggested he has an 11% chance of winning the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.

According to a survey by FiveThirtyEight, former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead has narrowed to seven percentage points in national polls, and the margins are tightening in some key battleground states.

FiveThreeEight ran a simulation of the election using 100 possible outcomes with Biden having a 76% chance of winning to Trump's 24%. However, as the 2016 presidential election showed, it all could come down to a handful of votes in a handful of states.

While the Democratic presidential nominee remains favored in several key state polls, Trump still has a puncher's chance by winning swing states like Florida and North Carolina, where the gap between both candidates has narrowed considerably.

An analysis performed by NPR suggests Florida has moved back as a toss-up state. While Biden still holds a slight lead, Trump is slowly gaining traction, picking up at least four percentage points in polling averages since July.

A new survey from the Monmouth University has Biden up by five points among registered Florida voters. A poll by NBC/Marist has both candidates locked at 48%.

In recent weeks, the Trump campaign cut back advertising in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, which allowed Biden’s campaign to outpace him in media ad buys. However, elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley said the delays in voting due to the pandemic could give the president an opportunity to contest this year’s elections.

With less than two months before the November elections, Trump is pushing to expand the electoral map by flipping states Hillary Clinton narrowly won in 2016.

The president appeared in a rally in New Hampshire last month, a day after delivering his acceptance speech at the GOP National Convention. He also campaigned in Nevada on Sunday, with a controversial indoor rally in a warehouse in the City of Henderson. He is expected to appear in Minnesota on Friday.

His campaign stops come as polls indicate that Trump and Biden are locked in tight races in those states. The former vice president is only leading by a small margin in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

“They are playing defense in so many states, they need an offense state,” said Amy Koch, a former Minnesota senate majority leader.

Trump’s attempt to flip states that voted for Clinton in 2016 may be based on his near-losses in those states. While his campaign has cut back ad spending in New Hampshire, Republican strategist Jim Merrill believes he can still win the state, as reported by the Washington Examiner.

“The president has obsessed about winning New Hampshire since falling short here by such a small margin in 2016,” Merrill said. “They’ve had a large and smart team working the ground game for a long time now, and we’re seeing more campaign visits and an uptick in paid media. He is an underdog for sure, but a path for Trump to win New Hampshire exists.”