Election 2020: Higher Voter Turnout Will Help Trump Win, New Study Reveals

Distressing news for Democrats. A study involving 12,000 non-voters by the Knight Foundation shows their party still winning the popular vote in November but losing the Electoral College in a repeat of 2016.

Dems this time around are expected to win more of the popular vote but the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will still remain out of reach.

The Knight Foundation reached this conclusion based on a study of non-voters, which it defined as those eligible but not registered or registered but have cast no more than one ballot in the past six national elections. The study, which was conducted as part of the foundation's “100 Million Project,” covered 10 of the most competitive states.

The 100 million refers to the number of eligible Americans that didn't cast a vote for president in 2016. This number comprises 43% of the eligible voting-age population, said the study.

"They represent a sizeable minority whose voice is not heard in our representative democracy ... As a result, relatively little is known about those with a history of non-voting. Yet their non-participation is a key feature of our democracy, and raises important questions about the basic health of a participatory society," said the study.

The study also notes the "largest bloc of citizens in our presidential elections are not those who vote for one candidate or another, but those who do not participate in the election at all." Hence, the reason for the study.

In 2016, this 100 million included more than 2.5 million voters in Michigan, 3.5 million voters in Pennsylvania and 1 million voters in Wisconsin -- the three states where Trump defeated Clinton by a combined 77,774-vote margin to win the presidency.

It's long been held by Democrats those who stayed home in 2016 -- or the 100 million -- cost Hillary Clinton the presidency. The obvious conclusion from this premise is if Democrats can increase turnout in 2020, they’ll defeat Trump. The Knight Foundation says this conclusion is likely a fallacy based on their study.

Its study suggests if every eligible adult voted in 2020 (including the 100 million), Democrats will increase their popular vote lead from the 2016 presidential election, but will still lose the Electoral College.

That's because in the closest battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, more non-voters say they’ll likely support Trump if they vote, rather than the Democratic Party’s nominee.

In Michigan, 31% of non-voters will vote Trump; the number is 36% in Pennsylvania and 31% in Wisconsin. In contrast, the numbers for the Democratic nominee are 32% in Michigan, 28% in Pennsylvania and 32% in Wisconsin. The data clearly shows Dems have to win over non-voters in Pennsylvania to help unseat Trump.

In Arizona, Florida and Virginia, non-voters chose Trump over any Democratic nominee. Arizona had it 34% to 25% in favor of Trump; 36% of Florida non-voters will vote for Trump versus 31% for the Democratic party; and 35% to 31% in Virginia.

The study also confirms most whites still dislike the Democrats, which proudly bills itself as the party of racial diversity.

Among non-voters, 34% of whites have a very or somewhat favorable view of the Democratic Party. On the other hand, 52% have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Democrats.

Hispanics have a more favorable view of the Democratic Party compared to whites versus unfavorable (47% to 40%). The same is true among African American non-voters: 63% have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, while 23% have an unfavorable view.

As for their perception of Trump among both non-voters and active voters, 40% view him favorably. On the other hand, 51% percent of non-voters and 58% of active voters view Trump unfavorably.

Among non-voters self-identifying as Republicans, 78% have a favorable view (including 50% very favorable), 19% had an unfavorable (including 10% very unfavorable).

Among Independent non-voters, 38% hold a favorable view (including 17% very favorable), while 55% hold an unfavorable view, (including 41% very unfavorable).

Democrat non-voter favorability came to a mere 15% (including 7% very favorable), while 79% had an unfavorable view (including 67% very unfavorable) of Trump.

As for ethnicity, 47% of white non-voters view Trump favorably versus 46% that don't like him. Only 37% of Hispanic non-voters have a favorable opinion of Trump versus 53% unfavorable. Among African Americans, 21% have a favorable view versus 69% unfavorable.