KEY POINTS

  • National polls consistently show Biden beating Trump in November
  • New polls now show Biden also defeating Trump in the key swing states that gave Trump the presidency in 2016
  • One analyst said Biden leads Trump in all 13 swing states

The battleground state of Michigan, whose popular vote President Donald Trump won by a scanty 0.23% over Hillary Clinton in 2016, doesn't seem set to travel this route Nov. 3. On the contrary, Joe Biden looks set to win the state this time around, according to one of Michigan's highly-regarded polling firms.

Biden has doubled his lead over Trump -- to 12 percentage points from six percentage points -- in the latest public opinion poll conducted by the full-service research firm, EPIC-MRA, based in Lansing, Michigan. The EPIC-MRA poll released Sunday showed Biden ahead of Trump, 53% to 41%.

Its previous poll in January showed Biden with only a six percentage point edge over Trump (50% to 44%). This poll also showed 55% of respondents giving Trump a negative rating (fair or poor) as to the job he's doing. It showed 43% supporting the job Trump is doing.

The new poll taken in May showed Independents again backing Biden but by a far larger margin. It revealed 63% of Independents saying they supported Biden while 23% favored Trump.

The poll found a majority of likely Michigan voters saying they weren't pleased with Trump's handling of the raging COVID-19 pandemic. It showed 58% of respondents giving Trump a negative rating, 41% giving him a positive rating while 1% were undecided or refused to say.

The latest poll was conducted from May 30 and June 3 and involved 600 Michigan voters. Its margin of error was 4%. The poll was taken before Biden clinched the Democratic Party presidential nomination June 7.

Polls since Biden announced his candidacy in April 2019 have consistently shown him beating Trump in November. New polls in battleground, or swing states now also showed Biden in command.

An analysis of recent polling data in 13 swing states published in a report May 28 showed Biden's consistent advantage over Trump.

The report by Alan Abramowitz, the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political, Science at Emory University, also revealed recent polling results this year correlate more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results -- which is good news for Biden.

Joe Biden describes his campaign as 'the battle for the soul of this nation'
Joe Biden describes his campaign as 'the battle for the soul of this nation' AFP / JIM WATSON

Abramowitz said this outcome indicated pollsters have adjusted their sampling and weighting procedures to correct for some of the problems occurring in 2016.

He said the 13 swing states are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Trump carried seven of these 13 states in 2016. He won 50.2% of the major party vote to 49.8% for Clinton. On the other hand, Trump won 118 electoral votes from these states to only 45 for Clinton -- and with this the election.

Abramowitz pointed out Biden’s recent polling was now better than Clinton’s final poll results in 11 of the 13 swing states. Biden was also polling almost five points ahead of Clinton’s final poll results in terms of margin. Abramowitz concluded recent polling in the 13 swing states "shows a consistent advantage" for Biden over Trump.

"Biden leads Trump in all 13 states, although his margin in five states is less than five points," wrote Abramowitz.