Election 2020 Poll: Trump Is Losing To Biden By 9%, Amash Could Help GOP

Voter support for Joe Biden has strengthened despite challenges presented by Libertarian candidate Justin Amash and a sexual assault allegation by Tara Reade against the Democratic Party's presidential candidate.

These controversies, however, have had no immediate negative impact on Biden in a new Monmouth University poll involving 808 respondents nationwide. Conducted from April 30 to May 4, the poll shows Biden with 50% support among registered voters, which is a 9% lead over President Donald Trump.

Respondents in support of an independent candidate formed 3%, while 5% were undecided. Biden's current advantage is larger than the results of the two previous Monmouth polls: 48% to 44% in April and 48% to 45% in March. It's also a two point gain for Biden and a three point loss for Trump since the last Monmouth poll in April.

Reade is the only woman to have accused Biden of an alleged sexual assault. According to her, Biden (then 50 years old) pushed her against a wall in a Capitol Hill office building before touching her inappropriately.

"His hands went underneath my clothing and he was touching me in my private areas and without my consent," she said in an NPR podcast.

It was April 9 that Reade filed a police report with Washington D.C.'s Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) alleging she was sexually assaulted in 1993. Biden categorically denied Reade's claim May 1.

“I’m saying unequivocally, it never, never happened,” he told MSNBC’s Morning Joe in his first public comments about this scandal.

“So I want to address allegations by a former staffer that I engaged in misconduct 27 years ago." he wrote in a post published on Medium. "They aren’t true. This never happened.”

Among the Monmouth poll respondents who said Reade's allegation against Biden probably isn't true, 79% said they’d still vote for Biden. Among those who said they believe Reade, 32% said they'd support Biden. In this group, 59% said they'd vote for Trump.

Those with no opinion were almost evenly split, with 43% saying they'd support Biden and 45% saying they'd support Trump.

“We don’t know what impact this allegation will have in the long run,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “For some voters who believe the charge, it is still not enough to override their desire to oust Trump. The outlook is murkier for those who don’t have an opinion on it. This group includes a number of Democratic-leaning independents who could potentially be swayed if this story grows in importance.”

Amash, on the other hand, presents a different problem for Biden altogether. On April 30, Amash declared himself a presidential candidate for the Libertarian Party. He launched an exploratory committee for his improbable bid, which some political analysts contend will hurt Biden more than Trump.

The latest Monmouth poll seems to bear this out. With Amash contending against Biden and Trump, Biden gets 47% support, Trump gets 40% and Amash gets 5%.

Murray, however, believes if the presidential race is as close as it was in 2016, the presence of a third-party candidate on the ballot, like Amash, might prove pivotal.

“Overall, there is not as much of an appetite for a third option as there was four years ago,” said Murray. “It’s too early to tell whether Amash will have an impact but if this election ends up being as close as 2016, even a small showing can have a crucial impact.”

Amash, however, hasn't made a formal decision on whether he'll mount a presidential campaign.