Election 2020 Polls: Trump Will Win If 'Economy Holds Together', Billionaire CEO Says
Billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach, whose claim to political fame came in May 2016 when he predicted Donald Trump would become U.S. president, now says Trump's re-election triumph in 2020 is inevitable if the economy holds up until November.
With a net worth of $2.1 billion, Gundlach was called the "King of Bonds" by Barron's in 2011. He's CEO of DoubleLine, a leading U.S. fixed income investment firm with $130 billion assets under management.
"It's all about the economy," Gundlach told Yahoo!. "And I think that if the economy holds together -- and it just might -- into the election, I think Trump's going to win."
He believes the only way Trump won't win re-election is if there's a recession.
"If there is a recession, I don't even know if he can run, because he runs on braggadocious language. And it's difficult to get braggadocious if you have a negative sign from the GDP."
Gundlach, however, has long been bearish on the economy, which keeps showing signs of weakness despite impressive quarterly growth. Good economic numbers and a still strong stock market seems to have influenced Gundlach into lowering his probability of a recession before the 2020 election to 40%. He previously said there was a 75% chance of an economic recession before November 2020.
Gundlach also hazarded what sounds like an incredulous claim. He believes Trump might have had a hidden agenda in sparking his trade war with China. Gundlach claims Trump launched the trade war to force the Fed to lower interest rates. The subtext is lower interest rates will be good for the Trump real estate empire.
"However, maybe he's just really diabolically clever after all, and he put on the tariffs to weaken the economy so that the Fed would cut interest rates. We all know monetary policy works with a lag,” he said.
“So the Fed's cut rates three times. Maybe that lag will be enough to keep the economy going into the election. He also has those tariffs on, which he can remove."
Apart from the strong economy, a key reason why Gundlach still believes Trump will win is the huge gaggle of Democrats pecking at each other for their party's presidential nomination.
Gundlach described the Democratic presidential candidates as "pretty weak."
"You can sort of see that from the polling, that you have a flavor of the month thing kind of going on," he said.
Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren were former flavors of the month and "looked good for a while” before losing steam. Harris gave up her presidential ambitions Wednesday citing lack of money. Warren remains among the top three bets but has lost the spotlight for now.
Gundlach claims the new Democrat “flavor of the month" is South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg, who's only 37 years old. He praised Buttigieg's public speaking skills, but there's a "but."
"He's just so well-spoken, so good on his feet. But he sort of looks like he's running for student council,” said Gundlach. “He's so young. So it's very hard for me to believe that he's really going to endure, even though he is very talented. I think he has a great future."
He slammed frontrunner Joe Biden as the "Rasputin of politics -- the guy who won't go away."
"I can't find any winners in the Democratic field," he said.
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