Election 2020 Predictions: Here's Why Trump's Re-election Win Is Not A Done Deal

Combine the historical record showing incumbent presidents win re-election on a strong economy with Wall Street analytics pointing to a Trump win, and one sees the huge odds the Democrat's presidential candidate has to beat on November 3. At this stage, that candidate is either former vice-president Jose Biden or Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-VT.

The odds, however, aren't as stacked in president Donald Trump's favor as it might seem. The conventional wisdom a strong economy benefits the incumbent only applies to incumbents that haven't been impeached.

Trump is only the third president to have been impeached and the only one seeking re-election after his impeachment by the House. In contrast, former president Bill Clinton was on his second term (he was re-elected in 1997) when he was impeached for perjury and obstruction of Congress on Dec. 19, 1998.

Political experts such as Lara Brown, director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University and The Hill contributor, contend Trump "seems to be starting his campaign from an unusually weak position" given nearly 47 percent of Americans believe he should be kicked out his job by the Senate. She also noted that at the start of Clinton’s impeachment trial in the Senate, only one-third of Americans wanted Clinton removed from office. Brown also pointed out Trump's approval rating is the lowest of any president that ran for reelection since Gerald Ford (1974-1977) -- who lost.

Polling by Gallup shows Trump with a third year net approval rating (approval minus mean disapproval) of -11.6 percent. This outcome is nearly identical to Jimmy Carter’s net approval rating of -11.5 percent. Carter lost his re-election bid in 1981 to Ronald Reagan.

Trump also has to contend with his stubbornly huge unpopularity among American voters. Polls taken by YouGov, Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research and Ipsos from January 19 to 23 all reflect this.

A YouGov poll (Jan. 21-23) shows Trump with a 50 percent to 46 percent adjusted disapproval/approval rating. An Ipsos poll (Jan, 21-22) shows a much wider 55 percent to 40 percent disapproval/approval rating, while Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Jan. 20-22) shows a 52 percent to 42 percent disapproval/approval rating.

The last time Trump's approval rating was above 45 percent while his disapproval was below 45 percent was after his inauguration in January 2017. Trump's current approval rating is 42 percent.

"Simply put, this fact does not bode well for this incumbent -- no matter how strong the economy or his campaign’s success in turning out his voters," said Brown. "Trump is not a majority president. It’s unlikely he can be a majority candidate."

Former White House communications director and now arch-Trump critic Anthony Scaramucci also believes Trump will be a one-term president. Scaramucci credits Trump for the strong stock market but wage growth, especially among the middle class, is paltry and this will spell trouble for Trump in November.

“Good news for the bottom 10 percent -- wages are up,” he said, “but the bad news for the middle class wages in America, they’re actually down over the last three years, and the income gap has actually widened in the last three years.”

Trump's former friend no longer has kind words to say about him. Scaramucci described Trump as “unstable and so erratic," an abnormal man who says "abnormal things."

“Trump is a demagogue,” said Scaramucci. “And demagoguery, if you really study it, it has a life expectancy of about four to five years. So we’re in the four-and-a-half year period of this demagoguery and when Joe McCarthy’s demagoguery ended, there were many great political leaders who said, ‘My god, why didn’t I speak up? Why didn’t I recognize the idiocy of this? Why didn’t I recognize what this person was doing to the great institutions of our country?’”