Election 2022: What Democrat And Republican Strategists Predict Will Happen In Midterms

Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory Tuesday in Virginia’s gubernatorial election may have given the Biden administration a wake-up call, possibly brewing a bloody 2022 midterms for Democrats if they don’t deliver material benefits to their constituents.

Youngkin’s victory marked the first time a Republican was elected governor in the commonwealth since 2009. The state has trended blue and Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020. Republicans also had a strong showing in the New Jersey gubernatorial race.

Youngkin, 54, ran on rolling back COVID-19 regulations and mandates as well as banning the teaching of critical race theory in schools, both of which were top issues for many voters. He also held Trump’s loyal base while acknowledging Biden rightfully won the 2020 presidential election.

In the aftermath of the election, Politico cited a senior Democratic official who warned that “it will get so much worse [in 2022] if we don't pass the [Build Back Better] agenda and aren't able to run on it.”

Democratic officials are acknowledging the defeat could be a grim preview of what is yet to come for the 2022 midterm elections. Former Virginia Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello said “being anti-Trump is not going to be enough” for his party to win elections, and that they will have to demonstrate to their constituents the ideas they support in order to win.

“It’s time to hit the panic button because the base is not motivated," Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher said, calling the loss "catastrophic" for Democrats.

Republicans may see more light at the end of the tunnel entering the midterms, as political history dictates that the party that is not in the White House tends to make gains in subsequent elections. “Twelve months is a political lifetime, but based on where they are right now and historical precedent, you’d be hard-pressed to figure out a way for Democrats to salvage the 2022 elections,” Republican pollster Neil Newhouse told McClatchy DC Bureau.

“Youngkin’s victory in Virginia should serve as a wake-up call to Democrats everywhere that an epic wave is on the way," said John Ashbrook, a Republican strategist who works on Senate races.

The last time Democrats held a majority in both houses of Congress was in 2009 when they controlled 257 House seats and 59 Senate seats. In the wake of the 2008 financial collapse, after failing to follow through on their promises in the first two years of Obama’s presidency, a red wave of Tea Party candidates pushed many vulnerable Democrats out of Congress, losing them 64 seats in the House and eight in the Senate.