Election Results: What Nate Silver Is Saying As Election Returns Come In
On Election Night, a big name to know is forecaster Nate Silver, the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.
FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis and hard numbers to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics, and many other topics.
Many have looked to Silver's wisdom and analysis as the election returns pour in. Silver and FiveThirtyEight have been very active on Twitter, prompting many retweets and likes.
Silver on Twitter urged Americans on Tuesday to take a second look at the poll numbers when distributed. He argued that it's tough to see who's truly leading the election without knowing how many mail-in ballots have been counted.
The big split in mail vs. Election Day votes just makes election night harder. Like, I think the Midwest sorta looks decent for Biden? But it's very hard to know much definitively, unless you've really done a lot of Needle-like analysis on exactly what types of votes are in.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
Silver also added on Twitter that voters should not be “analyzing anything based on election night returns.” He says the results are tricky due to mail-in voting and the record size of the election.
I love the Needle, etc. but analyzing anything based on election night returns is tricky just because we've never had this huge Election Day vs. early split along partisan lines before. Increases uncertainty, and means you should revert a bit back to 50/50.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
Most notably FiveThirtyEight recently reported that “If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina” he has a 50% chance to win the Electoral College. However, on the other hand, if Biden “wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1%.”
If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s at about a 50% shot to win the Electoral College, according to our interactive map. But if Biden then wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1%. https://t.co/aivLfUK7qz
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 4, 2020
Silver, 42, said over the weekend that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden will become “an underdog" if he doesn't win Pennsylvania.
Speaking on ABC News' "This Week," Silver said the presidential race will come down to the key swing state.
“Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin,” Silver said. "It’s not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania.”
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