Elections Could Significantly Damage US Dollar Value

No matter who wins in the U.S. presidential race, the value of the US dollar looks to be on a rather steady decline, Standard Chartered Bank notes.

The drumbeat of recessionary strains in the US economy, the world’s largest, has continued despite expectations of profound growth in gross domestic product for the third quarter.

On Wednesday, US Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard told an online conference of the Society of Professional Economists, that permanent scars may be developing for an economy plagued by the strains of the pandemic.

Waning confidence would have a net negative impact on the value of the dollar.

“Premature withdrawal of fiscal support would risk allowing recessionary dynamics to become entrenched, holding back employment and spending, increasing scarring from extended unemployment spells, leading more businesses to shutter, and ultimately harming productive capacity,” she said.

Appearing the same day on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia,” Eric Robertsen, the head of global research at Standard Chartered Bank, said among other things, the US trade balance was the worst its been in 15 years and that’s having an impact on the greenback. The more exports there are, the more the US dollar is desired and vice versa.

With financial news focused on the upcoming election in the U.S., Robertsen said the pressures are clear.

If President Trump secures a second term in office, he said, the direction of the US dollar will be “a little bit more messy in the short term. If former Vice President Joe Biden wins, the dollar depreciation would be “very clear and very pronounced.”

Trump has a conflicted relationship with the value of the US dollar, pressing at times for strength and at times for weakness. The dollar for much of 2020 has been on a losing streak. In Asian trading on Thursday, the dollar index against a basket of other currencies was down more than 3% on the year.

The odds of a US stimulus package would influence the greenback inversely. If Biden wins, traders are betting on a huge stimulus package, which would be bearish for the dollar. And if Biden wins, that would increase the appetite for currencies bruised by the Sino-American trade deal, with China on the winning end.