To End The Migration Crisis, The US Needs Venezuela

President Donald Trump has unveiled his vision for America's 'golden age' with a crackdown on irregular immigration resulting in over 3,500 arrests during his first week back in office.

As the new administration sets out its ambitious immigration policy, one issue looms large: the US's approach to Venezuela.

Under former President Joe Biden, the White House initially eased sanctions and renegotiated border issues, only to adopt a tougher stance following the collapse of the Barbados Agreement – which aimed to establish conditions for free and fair presidential elections in 2024.

With Venezuelan President Maduro very much in place, Trump has an opportunity to reassert US diplomacy and reframe the approach to border security.

Early signs suggest the White House is already seeking detente with Venezuela. Trump's envoy for special missions, Richard Grenell, successfully secured the release of six detainees on Friday and President Maduro has now agreed to accept thousands of deportees.

As Trump shifts towards engagement, calls for a return to his first-term 'maximum pressure' approach are growing louder. Figures such as former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe have gone as far as advocating for military intervention to forcibly remove President Nicolás Maduro.

However, reverting to harsher sanctions risks exacerbating the very issue the administration aims to address: reducing the flow of irregular migrants to the US border.

Sanctions have already proven to influence migration patterns by disrupting Venezuela's economic fabric, particularly the oil revenues that fund imports critical to productivity beyond the energy sector, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe.

Experts contend that policies like the removal of Chevron's license, which permits limited oil extraction operations in Venezuela, or a return to maximum-pressure, will likely lead to an estimated one million additional Venezuelans emigrating over the next five years.

One only has to assess past figures to see proof of the correlation. Between 2012 and 2020, Venezuela's per capita GDP fell by 71%, the equivalent of three Great Depressions.

This came as the first Trump administration, heavily influenced by Latinos of a neoconservative disposition, prevented Venezuela from accessing the US financial system; prohibited transactions related to purchasing Venezuelan debt; and blocked oil imports from the state-owned energy company, PDVSA.

During that period, more than seven million nationals left the country with many heading to the US, where the authorities state they have encountered more than 800,000 Venezuelans since 2021.

Had it not been for US economic sanctions, it is estimated that up to four million of those seven million migrants would have stayed in Venezuela.

This was a point raised by US government officials at the time who warned that a hardline stance on Venezuela would accelerate the country's economic collapse, further intensifying migratory flows.

'I said the sanctions were going to grind the Venezuelan economy into dust and have huge human consequences, one of which would be out-migration,' claimed Thomas Shannon, who served in the State Department during Trump's first term.

Of equal concern is the risk of further straining the already fraught relationship between Caracas and Washington – a relationship that needs to be constructive to secure deportation arrangements for irregular migrants.

The recent disagreement between Colombia and the US over deportation flights offers a cautionary tale. Washington has leverage over trade-dependent nations like Colombia, where Gustavo Petro reversed his stance after Trump threatened tariffs.

However, suffering under stringent sanctions, Maduro has little to no incentive to play ball and allow the repatriation of Venezuelans overseas.

Indeed, a return to maximum-pressure sanctions would amount to nothing more than a repetition of a failed policy approach – a lose-lose situation that would inflict great harm on ordinary citizens and fall short of the political results that American officials seek.

Be in no doubt that Republican re-election depends on enhanced border security.

Venezuelans are not fleeing their homeland due to political differences; they are escaping a reality of poverty and despair, stemming from an increasingly dire economic crisis exacerbated by sanctions.

Trump's new administration has a unique opportunity to break the cycle by engaging with Maduro in a pragmatic bargain to address the migration crisis: sanctions relief for repatriations.

With the recent news that Homeland Security has rescinded the Temporary Protected Status of some 600,000 Venezuelans in the US, the clock is ticking for a repatriation deal. Weakening migrants' legal protections is one thing, but they still need somewhere to go.

Guantanamo is not a solution. These migrants will ultimately need to return home to Venezuela – and that will require a deal.

Securing these repatriations in return for sanctions relief for Venezuela would be a major diplomatic win for the White House and a boon for US border and energy security.

This would put the Republicans well on course for a second term.