Eric Hovde and Donald Trump
Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde speaks at a campaign rally as former President Donald Trump watches in Racine, Wis., on June 18, 2024. JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images

A Republican challenger backed by former President Donald Trump is trailing Democratic Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin in virtually every poll of voters in the crucial swing state.

Eric Hovde trailed Baldwin by 10 percentage points, 52% to 42%, in the most recent survey reported by polling aggregator Real Clear Politics which gave Baldwin a 6.7 point edge as of Tuesday.

Hovde hasn't scored higher than 48%, which tied the banking mogul with Baldwin in an early survey conducted by Republican polling company Remington Research from June 29 to July 1.

Baldwin, who's seeking a third term in the Senate, has led Hovde in 10 other polls reported by Real Clear Politics.

Her worst performance came in a July 24-Aug. 1 survey that put her ahead by 5 points, 52% to 47%.

That poll had a relatively large, 4.8% margin of error, which means the results could essentially be flipped.

Baldwin's biggest lead was 11 points, 54% to 43%, recorded during a Fox News poll conducted in late July.

Democrats narrowly control the Senate, 51-49, but are widely expected to lose the seat being vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

If they hold on to the other 22 seats up for grabs in November and don't flip any others, the tie-breaking vote would be held by whomever is elected vice president.

Trump endorsed Hovde during an April campaign rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, where he called Baldwin a "very weak candidate" and told Hovde, "You better win," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported at the time.

"I mean, if you lose to her, that's not a good thing, OK?" Trump said.

Trump, who's outperforming Hovde in the Badger State, is essentially in a dead heat there with Vice President Kamala Harris, with Real Clear Politics giving her a razor-thin, 1% average lead in their race for the White House.