Falcons vs. Saints 2018: Prediction, Betting Odds, Preview For Thanksgiving Rivalry Game

The New Orleans Saints have been just about unstoppable since being upset in the season opener. Drew Brees has become the top 2018 NFL MVP candidate, leading the team on a nine-game winning streak and making them the Super Bowl favorites. That hot streak is expected to continue on Thanksgiving when they host the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12.

A lot has certainly changed since the Saints defeated the Falcons in Week 3. New Orleans won what was thought to be a pivotal NFC South matchup in overtime on the road. Two months later, the rematch isn’t supposed to be nearly as close.

New Orleans is a 13-point favorite over Atlanta, according to the latest betting odds at OddShark. That’s the biggest point spread on the entire Week 12 schedule. The total of 60 points is also the largest of the week.

The Saints’ last four victories have all been by double digits and each has been more impressive than the previous one. New Orleans followed up a 30-20 victory over the Minnesota Vikings by defeating the Los Angeles Rams 45-35 and jumping into the driver’s seat for the NFC’s No.1 seed. The Saints blew the doors off the Cincinnati Bengals 51-14 on the road in Week 10. They returned home for a 48-7 drubbing of the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles.

Scoring at least 45 points in three straight games, New Orleans ranks first with 37.8 points per game. They aren’t likely to slow down against Atlanta’s 29th-ranked defense. The Falcons are giving up 27.6 points per game.

Atlanta isn’t going to catch New Orleans in the division, and their Week 11 loss at home to the Dallas Cowboys probably cost them any chance of making the playoffs. Keeping Thursday night’s game competitive might be considered an achievement at this point.

The Falcons should be able to avoid a beating like the one the Bengals and Eagles just received at the hands of the Saints. Cincinnati’s offense is a shell of itself without A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. Philadelphia is a complete mess, having scored 24 points or fewer in nine of their 10 games. Atlanta can move the ball, and they should put up points if they’re competent in the red zone.

Atlanta ranks no worse than ninth in points scored, total yards and yards per play. They are averaging 31.3 points per game indoors. Matt Ryan has a 125.0 passer rating with 15 touchdown passes, two interceptions and 348.3 yards per game in those contests.

Even after two strong defensive performances, the Saints are only 25th in opponents’ yards per play. In four games against top-12 offenses, New Orleans has surrendered 35.8 points per game.

Seven games this season have included teams that rank both in the top-nine in points scored and no better than 14th in points allowed. Each game has totaled at least 62 points. The average point total in those contests is 80.1.

The Falcons and Saints are both included in that group of teams. They had a high-scoring, competitive affair in their first meeting, and Thursday’s contest might not be much different.

Prediction: New Orleans over Atlanta, 40-33