Fickle Polls Show Joe Biden's Lead Narrowing and Growing Over President Trump

Joe Biden has maintained a healthy in the national polls over President Donald Trump since even before he solidified himself as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. But the whole process seems murky.

New polls paint a conflicting picture of the presidential race as some show Trump gaining some ground on Barack Obama’s former vice president and others show Biden widening his lead after declaring Kamala Harris as his running mate.

CNN’s newest poll was released on Sunday in cooperation with the independent research company SSRS. Over 1,100 people were interviewed between August 12 and August 15 as part of the fourth poll conducted by the two organizations.

Biden led Trump by only four percentage points, down from from a 14-point lead in June.

The poll question asked: “Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s candidates, and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party’s candidates. Who would you be more likely to vote for?”

Results found that 50% of respondents supported Biden and Harris compared to 46% who said they support Trump and Pence.

This is a decrease from CNN and SSRS’ previously poll conducted between June 2 and June 5 where 55% of people polled supported Biden to Trump’s 41%. However, the poll notes Harris was not announced as Biden’s running mate at the time and made no mention of any potential running mate.

By comparison, a new poll conducted by ABC News and the Washington Post showed support for Biden remained in double digits ahead of the Monday opening of the 2020 Democratic National Convention. The poll found 53% of registered voters polled supported Biden to 41% who supported Trump; likely voters were split 54% for Biden and 44% for Trump.

“Biden’s enthusiasm score started up before he selected Harris; it’s risen in ABC/Post polls since May,” the press release said. “Nonetheless, views of her selection are positive; as reported Sunday, Americans approve by a 25-point margin, 54-29 percent.”

Harris also appeared to be well received in the ABC News/Washington Post poll with 86% of Democrats approving Biden’s choice compared to 8% who disapproved. The poll also found that about 25% of Republicans polled approved of Harris’ selection as Biden’s running mate. A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll released Sunday showed Biden ahead 50% to 41% in the popular vote.

Even with Biden leading the polls, they reflect a general murkiness around polls that has become more prevalent in recent elections. In the 2016 presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton led Trump in most polls ahead of the election. However, some experts have said comparing the lead up to 2016’s election to the 2020 election does not make sense either because of the differences in the lead.

FiveThirtyEight said using modern polling methods, Clinton's average lead in the polls would have been four points. This is general considered the margin of error range for most modern polls, meaning the next polls could swing back the other way. Biden’s lead, on the other hand, has typically averaged around nine points and has consistently led polls in multiple battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.