Forex Daily Commentary - 25/02/2009
:: Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar opens higher today at US65 cents having traded between a low of 0.6388 and a high of 0.6525 over the last 24 hours. The Aussie moved lower during local trade yesterday as equity markets in the region plunged before finding support around the 0.6390 level. The Australian share market finished at a 5-year low on Tuesday. Further greenback weakness is likely to prop up the local unit over the near term and familiar ranges can be expected today. The Aussie has traded within a broad range of 0.6350 and 0.6550 over the past seven sessions.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.6420 to 0.6550
:: Great Britain Pound: Pound Sterling opens steady this morning against its US counterpart at 1.4475 after rallying from an overnight low of 1.4374. UK equities were lower for a third straight day after a report showed UK mortgage approvals fell 43 per cent compared to this time last year as the recession continues to batter home prices. Also keeping a lid on the pound is a report due out tonight which is likely to show the UK economy shrank in the fourth quarter, further pressuring the Bank of England to keep cutting interest rates. The pound has lost ground against the Australian Dollar (2.2230) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.8120).
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.2100 to 2.2380
:: New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar continues to tread water and opens today at 0.5135. The kiwi has traded within a broad range between 0.5000 and 0.5200 over the past five sessions and is being hampered by weaker equity markets in the region and a lack of local economic data. Despite greenback weakness after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's sombre assessment of the US economy, the kiwi ran out of steam at 0.5166 late in the offshore session. The risk remains to the downside for the kiwi on another data-free day.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.5060 to 0.5160
:: Majors: The US Dollar has rallied strongly overnight against the Yen as Japan's economy continues to deteriorate. The greenback opens this morning near its session high at 96.87. The negative Japanese news is likely to continue today when January's trade deficit is announced with most economists forecasting the largest gap in 23 years. The big dollar was mixed against most of its other rivals on the back of another round of dismal economic data releases. US consumer confidence for February plunged to its lowest level on record, House prices recorded another 2.5 per cent drop in December and US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a sombre assessment of the US economy in his semi-annual testimony to congress. Mr Bernanke said that the Central Bank remained committed to the viability of all major financial institutions which, at time of writing, gave Wall Street a much-needed boost.
:: Data Releases:
• AUD: DEWR skilled vacancies, Feb; Construction work, Q4
• CAD: No data expected
• EUR: German GDP Q4
• GBP: GDP Q4
• JPY: Merchandise Trade Balance, Jan
• NZD: No data expected
• USD: Existing home sales, Jan
:: Note: The above exchange rates are based on interbank rates. If you are considering a transfer then please login, register or call us for a live dealing rate.