Former WTO Chief Says EU Has Upper Hand In Post-Brexit Trade

The former head of the World Trade Organization expects Britain to struggle for years to redefine its ties with Europe -- and says Brits won't swallow US products like chlorinated chicken.

In an interview with AFP, Pascal Lamy -- who has also been an EU trade commissioner -- said London and Brussels may yet come to a bare bones trade deal this year to avoid a breakdown in ties.

But further negotiations will continue for many years after that, and the smaller British economy will be at a disadvantage compared to the much bigger and richer European Union.

If 2020 and the post-Brexit transition period come to an end without a deal between London and Brussels, cross-Channel trade will be disrupted by border checks and tariffs.

"The EU and the United Kingdom would fall under WTO rules, which isn't hell but is far from today's heaven. It would hurt, which would be stupid," Lamy told AFP in Brussels.

"In my opinion, they'll find a way -- that's the diplomat's art."

As things stand, the two camps seem far apart as, in Lamy's phrase, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU negotiator Michel Barnier put on their "war paint" ahead of intense negotiations.

Johnson insists he will give no ground on reasserting British sovereignty over its fishing waters, ending free movement of citizens and escaping from EU laws and regulations.

But Barnier's negotiating mandate will be equally clear that Britain will not enjoy privileged access to the EU market if it does not accept tough conditions to ensure a level playing field.

Lamy thinks that Johnson, whom he has known since the British premier's former life as a Brussels-based journalist covering EU politics, will give ground when economic reality sets in.

The sparse structure that could be in place by the end of the year will be gradually filled with the workings of a more ambitious trade deal -- largely on the EU's terms.

"Unlike Barnier, BoJo is a bluffer, a populist as they say. You mustn't take him at his word in what he says every day," said Lamy, who was head of the WTO between 2005 and 2013.

"It would be an agreement whose principles are established and we can see how it works as we go along, with Barnier taking out the necessary insurance against British dumping," he suggested.

"My prognosis is that this negotiation is a regatta that is going to last a long time. For 15 years, they will continue to exchange blows within the British political system," he said.

"In the end, I find it very hard to think the British will win the regatta. Especially in a globalised capitalist market system, in which economies of scale still play a very important role."

But what if Britain pivots to its vaunted special relationship with the United States, turning its back on EU regulations in return for a trade deal with President Donald Trump?

Lamy does not think that British consumers will change their habits simply to see US-UK trade climb from 10 to 15 percent of Britain's total commerce.

"The Americans will say: 'chlorinated chicken', 'hormone-raised beef', 'drug pricing'," he predicted.

"My feeling is the British public will not really want to eat chicken with chlorine because they are still mentally Europeans, with certain ideas about safety, health and the environment."