Many Americans seem to have lost hope that the federal government may provide a fourth round of direct payments in 2021. The economy has improved and with less than two months in the calendar year Capitol Hill lawmakers are more concerned with reaching a deal on President Joe Biden's Build Back Better agenda.

But the chance of a fourth stimulus check may be more plausible than some might think.

First, over 3.5 million Americans have signed petitions for more stimulus checks. While that may not spark immediate negotiations for a fourth round, it can at least prompt lawmakers to weigh the possibility. In the evenly split Senate, 21 Democrats signed a letter in late March for Biden to consider recurring stimulus payments.

Second, hiring has slowed over the past two months in an unusual job market that has seen a labor shortage due to insufficient pay and benefits. Poor employment numbers could prompt Democrats to push for another round of stimulus checks, especially since it appears likely that the party will fall well short of $3.5 trillion in infrastructure funding, which would have created 18.6 million jobs.

Third, an argument has been made that the payments fell short of their intention, which could be critical going forward as the country faces higher inflation and a crippled supply chain. According to a study in late September by Capital One Insights Center, the last three payments didn't go far enough. The study cited that by August, "24% of lower earners were actively looking for work —the highest share among all income groups."

Fourth, the economy may not fully recover from the pandemic in the coming months. Despite many vaccine mandates, millions of Americans have not been vaccinated, which could mean that new COVID-19 variants could cause more struggles for the economy. The U.S. economy could also be hurt by a weakening global economy due to low vaccination rates. Oxford Economics cut its forecast for 2021's global economic growth from 6.4% to 5.9%.

A fifth reason is that California could lead the way, as Gov. Gavin Newsom in late August delivered with a $12 billion stimulus bill. About two-thirds of the state's residents can qualify for a "Golden State Stimulus" check.

Combined together, the aforementioned factors may provide momentum for another round of payments.

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