France Election 2017: Latest Polls, Odds Ahead Of Presidential Vote; Le Pen, Fillon Set For Run-Off

François Hollande’s shock announcement last week that he would not seek a second term as French President has done nothing to aid the chances of a victory for far-right leader Marine Le Pen, according to a new opinion poll.

An Ifop-Fiducial poll, conducted for iTele, Paris Match and Sud Radio and released Tuesday, showed that conservative candidate François Fillon would defeat the National Front’s Le Pen in a second-round run-off with 65 percent of the vote. The poll was conducted from Nov. 28 to Saturday, meaning it is the first to include the French electorate’s reactions since Hollande addressed the nation Thursday to state that he would not launch a bid for re-election.

Hollande’s hopes of a second term were slim in any case. Polls have showed him running as low as nine percent in the vote.

The Socialist Party’s replacement on the ballot for Hollande has yet to be determined, although Prime Minister Manuel Valls has become the favorite to take the position and declared his candidacy Monday.

"We're told the left does not stand a chance, but nothing's set in stone," Valls told supporters in the Paris suburb of Evry when announcing his entrance into the race. "I want us to lead the left to victory!”

The latest polls, however, were showing that neither Valls nor any other candidate for the Socialist Party would do better than fifth. Hollande’s approval rating has dropped to a historic low of 4 percent amid a struggling economy and a string of recent terrorist attacks.

Hollande’s former economy minister Emmanuel Macron, who resigned from the government earlier this year before announcing he would run as an independent candidate, would come third in the first round of voting, according to the poll.

The poll also asked how Macron would fare in a second-round run-off against Le Pen, and showed him triumphing with 62 percent of the vote.

The French election and the rise of Le Pen has long been a focus of attention across Europe and the rest of the world in the wake of a several populist, anti-immigrant uprisings. However, Fillon is something of an insurgent candidate having shocked many by defeating former President Nicolas Sarkozy in the Republican Party’s primary last month.

Indeed, Fillon has occupied much of the same ground as Le Pen. Along with voting against same-sex marriage and urging closer ties with Russia, the former prime minister was supporting a ban on burkinis which has been passed by several mayors in France but struck down by a court in Nice.

The first round of voting in the French presidential election has been scheduled for April 23, 2017.

French Election Betting Odds
François Fillon — 4/6
Marine Le Pen — 5/2
Emmanuel Macron — 7/1
Manuel Valls — 10/1
Jean-Luc Mélenchon — 50/1