GfK German Consumer Confidence Forecast For November Falls; Rising Employment, Income, Demand Expected To Save Country From Recession In 2013

A forecast on Germany’s consumer confidence for November experienced a drop, missing expectations, but GfK, which released the data on Thursday, said that despite the slight decline, private spending in Germany is projected to increase by 1 percent in the whole of 2013, as previously estimated.

The overall consumer confidence forecast for November dropped to a value of 7 from 7.1 in October. In comparison, analysts had expected the GfK forecast indicator to rise to 7.2 in November.

“The domestic economy will make a decisive contribution to preventing Germany from slipping into recession this year,” GfK said in a statement. “Increasing employment levels and subsequent rising income are above all responsible for private consumption being and remaining an essential pillar for the economy.”

In October, consumer confidence experienced little change, as economic expectations improved slightly, while income expectations and willingness to shop dropped marginally, GfK said.

Economic expectations gained 0.6 points in October, pushing the indicator up to a reading of 11.3, while income expectations dropped by 1 point pulling the indicator down to a 32.7 reading. An indicator on willingness to buy fell by 0.6 points in October and is currently at a 44.4 reading.

Meanwhile, German retail sales in September declined 0.4 percent on a monthly basis, as expected, compared to a decline of 0.2 percent in August, data from the Federal Statistical Office released on Thursday showed.

On a yearly basis, retail sales increased 0.2 percent, widely missing expectations of an improvement of 1 percent and down from a 0.4 percent annual increase witnessed in August.