Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trail Blazers Game 4: Prediction, Odds, Series Could Be Extended

The Golden State Warriors are ready to advance to the 2019 NBA Finals. The remainder of their series with the Portland Trail Blazers is just a formality.

The back-to-back defending champs have a 3-0 Western Conference Finals lead over the Blazers heading into Monday night’s Game 4 in Portland. After Golden State cruised to a 22-point Game 1 victory, Portland has blown double-digit leads in consecutive third quarters, putting themselves on the brink of elimination.

The Warriors have dominated the series without any help from Kevin Durant. The superstar is still recovering from a calf strain he suffered in the second round, but Golden State hasn’t missed him one bit.

Golden State is 4-0 without Durant this postseason. Stephen Curry has scored at least 33 points in each of those games with 23 three-pointers. Klay Thompson is averaging 24.0 points per game in Durant’s absence. Draymond Green might be playing the best basketball of his career with averages of 16.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 3.0 blocks and 2.0 steals per game in the conference finals.

The core of the Warriors’ five-year dynasty has stepped up in Durant’s absence. The same can’t be said for the Blazers’ mainstays that have led Portland to six straight playoff appearances.

CJ McCollum was Portland’s best player in the team’s second-round series victory over the Denver Nuggets, but he’s shot poorly against Golden State with as many field-goal attempts as he has points. The gap that exists between Curry and Damian Lillard—the league’s two best point guards—has never been more evident than it has in this series.

The Damian Lillard that performed like a superstar in the first round has not shown up against Golden State. He’s averaging 20.3 points on 32.9 percent shooting with 4.7 turnovers per game. Whether it’s the Warriors’ blitzing defense or the separated ribs he’s been dealing with since Game 2, Lillard hasn’t been nearly as good as Golden State has needed him to be.

The Blazers nearly stole Game 2 at Oracle Arena when Lillard made some big second-half shots and finished with 23 points, 10 assists and two turnovers. He’s scored 19 points on no better than 33.3 percent shooting with at least five turnovers in both of the Blazers’ double-digit losses.

Which Lillard will show up Monday night?

The oddsmakers seem to believe Portland’s best player won’t have enough to extend the series. Golden State is a 3.5-point road favorite in Game 4, according to OddsShark. The total is 219.

The Warriors were 2.5-point underdogs in Game 3. The betting line has swung six points after one contest.

Maybe Portland shouldn't have been laying that many points when they are clearly overmatched, but Saturday’s result doesn’t justify the odds shifting this much.

It isn’t just that McCollum or Lillard seems due to have a hot shooting night. Golden State has suffered unexpected all season long when their backs haven’t been against the wall. The Warriors couldn’t be in a more comfortable position now that a fifth straight trip to the finals is virtually guaranteed.

Expect the Blazers to show some pride in what’s likely to be their last home game of the season. They won’t go down without a fight. Portland might not give up a big lead for a third time since they are likely to play with a much greater sense of urgency than Golden State in Game 4.

The Warriors blew Game 5 at home in the first round when everyone expected them to put the Los Angeles Clippers away. If they are able to win another game in one of the toughest environments for any road team, it should come down to the wire.

Game 4 Prediction: Portland over Golden State, 115-113