Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors Game 1: Prediction, Odds, Preview For 2019 NBA Finals

The Golden State Warriors are heavy favorites to win the 2019 NBA Finals, but the odds are against them in the series opener. The back-to-back defending champions are slight road underdogs for their Game 1 matchup with the Toronto Raptors Thursday night.

Toronto is laying one point, according to the betting line at OddsShark, and the total is 213.5. The Raptors have a real shot to take an early series lead and prove that they will present a major problem in the Warriors’ attempt at a three-peat.

Golden State didn’t miss Kevin Durant last series. Stephen Curry and the Warriors swept the Portland Trail Blazers as Durant nursed a calf injury, and he’s been ruled out for Game 1.

Against this Raptors’ team, Durant’s absence could become a major issue.

The Warriors won’t have the best player on the floor for the first time this postseason. That designation belongs to Kawhi Leonard, who carried Toronto through the Eastern Conference and is drawing comparisons to Michael Jordan because of his play on both offense and defense.

Leonard will have to deal with several skilled defenders. Andre Iguodala is usually tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best scorer, and doing so at a high level won him the 2015 NBA Finals MVP award. Klay Thompon was a 2019 All-Defensive second-team selection. Draymond Green remains one of the best defensive players in the league.

Of course, Leonard just torched the NBA’s No.1 ranked defense for six games, averaging 29.8 points, 9.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game with a 57.4 true shooting percentage.

Leonard will have to carry the Raptors offensively. Toronto will have to get a good game from Kyle Lowry, who was terrific against the Milwaukee Bucks with 19.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game. Fred VanVleet doesn’t have to remain nearly perfect from three-point range, though the Raptors do need to get some production from their bench.

If Toronto is going to defeat Golden State Thursday, they’ll have to do it largely with their defense. That’s how the Raptors upset the Bucks, stifling likely MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee’s half-court offense.

The Raptors will face a different challenge in the Warriors. They took advantage of Antetokounmpo’s inability to shoot. Golden State’s best player shoots the basketball better than anyone in league history. Thompson isn’t far behind him.

But Toronto has defenders that can at least slow the game down and make life difficult for Golden State, Kyle Lowry and Danny Green make up one of the best defensive backcourts in the league. Pascal Siakam more than held his own when being switched onto guards last series. Marc Gasol remains a good rim protector.

Curry could come close to scoring at least 36 points for a fifth straight game. He won’t be able to beat Toronto by himself on the road. Thompson has shot below 42 percent from the field in four straight games. Players like Alfonzo McKinnie and Jordan Bell will be asked to make big shots in the finals for the first time.

The Warriors will start the NBA Finals after 10 full days of rest. Maybe they won’t be affected by it. There’s also a chance Golden State will experience a little bit of rust.

Combine that with Toronto’s home-court advantage and the Raptors have a great chance to take an early lead in this series.

Game 1 Prediction: Toronto over Golden State, 106-101