Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears: Thursday Night Football Prediction, Betting Odds

An NFC North matchup kicks off Week 4 of the 2017 NFL season as the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears on "Thursday Night Football." Both teams are coming off victories Sunday afternoon.

The latest betting odds have Green Bay favored by seven points at home, via OddsShark, and the over/under is 45.5. Here’s a closer look at the Week 4 game, as well as a prediction against the spread:

Why the Packers could cover the spread

Green Bay vs. Chicago is considered to be one of the NFL’s best rivalries, but it hasn’t been much of a rivalry for a while. The Packers are 12-2 in their last 14 games against the Bears, and much of that can be traced back to the play of Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers has been the NFC’s best quarterback for nearly a decade, and no one is more familiar with that fact than the Bears. Going 14-4 against Chicago, Rodgers has a 105.7 career passer rating with 38 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He threw for 326 yards, three scores and no picks in Green Bay’s 26-10 win over Chicago at Lambeau Field a year ago.

Chicago has been competitive in two of their three games. The one time they went on the road, the game was over by halftime when they trailed the Buccaneers 26-0. The Bears are a different team away from Soldier Field. They haven’t gotten a road victory since 2015, and now they have to try to win at one of the toughest stadiums for any road team to play. Green Bay is 9-2 in their last 11 games at Lambeau Field.

The Bears were able to upset the Steelers in Week 3 by controlling the game with their ground attack. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen totaled 38 rushes, while Mike Glennon threw the ball just 22 times for 101 yards. If Chicago falls behind and Glennon is forced to make plays, the Bears will be in trouble.

Picking Aaron Rodgers to beat Mike Glennon sure feels like the right bet.

Why the Bears could cover the spread

Even with their 22-point loss to Tampa Bay, Chicago has played better than many would’ve expected to start the season. They defeated Pittsburgh, who reached the AFC Championship Game a season ago, and they were a dropped pass away from beating the NFC champion Atlanta Falcons.

Chicago’s defense looks to be legitimate. Prior to holding the Steelers’ explosive offense to 17 points, they made Atlanta look less than spectacular in a 23-17 loss. The Falcons have scored at least 30 points in their two other games. The Bears lost in Tampa Bay because of their four turnovers, and the Buccaneers only outgained Chicago by one yard.

As good as Rodgers is, he’ll have trouble beating the Bears by himself. Green Bay’s offensive line has been decimated by injuries. Starting left tackle David Bakhtiari has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, and starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga is back on the injury report with an ankle issue. Backup tackle Kyle Murphy is also on the injury report, which doesn’t bode well for Green Bay on a short week.

Rodgers was sacked six times against Cincinnati behind a banged up offensive line. Chicago sacked Roethlisberger three times last week, and they should be able to get decent pressure on Green Bay’s quarterback.

Green Bay’s defense hasn’t played well since hosting the Seahawks, who have struggled to put up points in 2017. The Packers rank 25th in the NFL, allowing 4.5 yards per carry, and they could struggle against the league’s best pair of running backs.

Prediction

Chicago has a chance to keep this game close, if not steal a victory. Green Bay is probably the best team in the division when they are healthy, but those injuries on the offensive line won’t make things easy after just three days of rest.

Rodgers has been sacked 13 times already, putting him ahead of every quarterback in the NFL. After the Packers struggled to beat the Seahawks and Bengals at home, Week 4 could be more of the same.

Green Bay over Chicago, 23-20