Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs 2019: Prediction Against The Spread, Odds With Mahomes Out

Week 8 “Sunday Night Football” was supposed to bring us a matchup between two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Instead, Patrick Mahomes’ injury means Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will visit a career backup and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Matt Moore gets the call to replace the reigning league MVP. The veteran did a more than adequate job in Week 7 when he played the majority of Kansas City’s game in Denver, which saw Mahomes leave early with a knee injury.

Sunday will present a different kind of challenge to Chiefs with Moore under center. Instead of facing a mediocre Broncos’ team, Kansas City will go up against one of the top Super Bowl contenders.

That’s why the Chiefs are significant underdogs at home. The Packers are laying 4.5 points in Kansas City, according to the latest betting line at OddsShark. The over/under is 48.

Green Bay cruised past the Oakland Raiders in Week 7, keeping the Packers in first place in the NFC North. Their 6-1 record puts them a game ahead of the Chiefs in the overall NFL standings. Even with a healthy Mahomes, the argument can be made that Green Bay is a better team than Kansas City.

A one-possession loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4 is the only thing keeping Green Bay from having a perfect record. With victories over the Raiders, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys, the Packers are 4-0 against teams that head into Week 8 at .500 or better.

Two of those wins came on the road. Across the NFL, home-field advantage has meant less and less in 2019. Green Bay’s only loss came at Lambeau Field. Both of Kansas City’s losses occurred at Arrowhead Stadium.

Rodgers is firmly in the MVP conversation, coming off his best game of the season. The quarterback ranks fifth in the NFL with 2,019 passing yards and sixth with 8.1 yards per attempt. Mahomes and Rodgers are the only quarterbacks this season that have thrown for over 2,000 yards with at least 8.0 yards per attempt and no more than two interceptions.

Davante Adams hasn’t played since Week 4 because of turf toe. It sounds like there’s a good chance Green Bay’s No.1 wide receiver will make his return Sunday night.

Green Bay’s offense has struggled at times against good defenses. Kansas City won’t be confused for a team with a good defense anytime soon.

Only three teams—including the winless Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals—have allowed more rushing yards per game than the Chiefs. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have combined to rush for 5.3 yards per carry over the last three weeks.

Moore will have some success with weapons like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce at his disposal in Andy Reid’s system. He’ll also struggle some against an improved Green Bay defense. An underachieving Chiefs’ offensive line could have its hands full with a solid Packers’ pass rush.

Moore threw a 57-yard touchdown pass in Denver that sealed Kansas City’s 30-6 Week 7 win. The quarterback was 9-18 for 60 yards on his other throws.

Look for the team with the much better quarterback and the better defense to win by a touchdown in primetime.

Prediction: Green Bay over Kansas City, 27-19