Harris, Trump In Tight Race As New Poll Shows Surge In Undecided Voters

Vice President Kamala Harris is neck-and-neck with former President Donald Trump in one of the first polls since she emerged as the likely Democratic nominee, according to a NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll released on Tuesday.

This is after a major increase in undecided independent voters following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race, according to Politico.

The poll, conducted on Monday, revealed Harris with 45 percent support among registered voters, trailing Trump by a single point at 46 percent.

When third-party candidates are included, both Harris and Trump are tied at 42 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. capturing seven percent.

A significant finding from the poll is the sharp rise in undecided independents, now at 21 percent in a Trump-Harris matchup, compared to just four percent in a Trump-Biden matchup from a similar poll conducted two weeks prior.

Overall, nine percent of registered voters are undecided, up from two percent earlier in the month.

Harris, swiftly securing pledges from a majority of delegates to the Democratic National Convention following Biden's withdrawal, shows varying support bases compared to Biden.

With third-party candidates in the mix, Harris polls worse than Biden among independents, college graduates, and voters over 35, but better among non-college graduates, non-white voters, and particularly voters under 35, where she polls 10 points higher than Biden.

"Looking at the toplines after all that's transpired this month, even though the names have changed, the contest for president all looks very familiar," Marist polling director Lee Miringoff said in a statement.

"But drilling down into the numbers tells a different story as more voters are undecided and others may be rethinking their choice."

Another poll by Reuters/Ipsos, conducted over Monday and Tuesday, shows Harris leading Trump by 2 percentage points, at 44 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The Trump campaign, in a memo released on Tuesday, speculated on whether Harris would enjoy a "honeymoon" period in the polls due to her rise to the top of the ticket or if the Republican rally around Trump, following an assassination attempt, would prove insurmountable.

The Marist Poll also marked its first survey since Trump announced Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate.

The poll found 28 percent of voters view Vance favorably, 31 percent unfavorably, and 41 percent remain unsure.

The NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll surveyed 1,117 registered voters on July 22 through online panels, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

However, polls conducted entirely within one day can introduce unique sources of error.