KEY POINTS

  • At least 4.25 million early votes have already been cast, an indication that this year's presidential election could see historic turnout
  • The surge created long waits at some polling stations, but distrust of the mail and still longer Election Day lines in the pandemic made voters show up anyway
  • Donald Trump has repeatedly alleged that mail-in ballots, an alternative to the physical lines, would be fraudulent

Voters across the U.S. flocked to polling places as early voting began, shattering numbers from the 2016 election and resulting in long lines, and leading to projections of the highest turnout in more than a century.

Forbes reported Wednesday 31 states already have started voting, with 4.25 million votes cast. That represents a fiftyfold increase over the 75,000 votes cast in 2016 at this same point. The number doubled in the last week.

The surge is driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and uncertainty around the election, with voters seeking to get their votes in as soon as possible and minimize contact with others. The high rates already have some experts predicting historic turnout.

Michael McDonald, who runs the project tallying these numbers at the University of Florida, told Reuters we could see a 65% voter turnout, the highest level since 1908.

“We’ve never seen this many people voting so far ahead of an election. People cast their ballots when they make up their minds, and we know that many people made up their minds long ago and already have a judgment about Trump,” he said.

The latest polls forecast a huge victory for Joe Biden - CNN's new survey gave the Democrat a national advantage of 57 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, with women voters going 66 to 32 percent in his favor
The latest polls forecast a huge victory for Joe Biden - CNN's new survey gave the Democrat a national advantage of 57 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, with women voters going 66 to 32 percent in his favor AFP / Brendan Smialowski

In Cleveland, voters were already facing lines more than two hours long, ABC affiliate WEWS-TV reported. One man in line told the station he was there because he didn’t trust the mail to deliver his vote.

“Our country is in a turning point right now. … I just want to make sure that my vote gets counted. That’s why I’m here early in person,” Kevin Jackson said.

Donald Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on the integrity of mailed ballots, another surging metric. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy has made changes at the postal service that has slowed mail delivery. He also faces allegations is appoint was the result of finance violations and improper donations.

McDonald cautioned against reading too much into voting rates at this stage in the process, noting early voting rates tend to surge initially before tapering off until right before the election. Still, the numbers suggest 2016’s voting rates will be eclipsed. Early voting so far in South Dakota already equals 23% of 2016’s total vote, with Virginia and Wisconsin having already collected 15% of their 2016 totals.

“That’s just nuts,” McDonald told Reuters, “Every piece of data suggests very high turnout for this election. I think that’s just a given.”

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