Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Game 4: Prediction, Odds, Starting Pitchers For 2019 ALCS

The 2019 American League Championship Series just got a little more interesting with Game 4 being postponed. The New York Yankees and Houston Astros will have to adjust their starting rotations with the game moving from Wednesday to Thursday, forcing the teams to prepare for a potentially long series that won’t include anymore off-days.

Game 4 was supposed to be a “bullpen game” with neither team using a traditional starter. Now that Mother Nature has intervened, both Game 1 starters will be on their normal rest and on the mound in Thursday’s pivotal contest.

Zack Greinke will start for Houston, hoping to give the Astros a commanding 3-1 series lead. Masahiro Tanaka is the Yankees’ probable starter, and the pitcher New York wants taking the ball in what’s become a virtual “must-win” game.

Losing Thursday night would make New York a long shot to win the series. It would require the Yankees to win three straight games against the Astros, including two victories in games started by Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander on full rest.

Greinke is a future Hall of Famer. He is not currently on the same level as Houston’s two Cy Young candidates, especially when it comes to pitching in the playoffs.

Forget about Tanaka’s regular-season numbers. The right-hander has proven to be one of MLB’s best postseason pitchers.

Thursday’s starting pitching matchup makes this a game that New York should win. After being considerable home underdogs in Game 3, the Yankees are -129 favorites in Game 4, according to the betting line at OddsShark. The Astros have +119 odds. The over/under is 7.5.

The Yankees won the series opener handily when Tanaka and Greinke faced off the first time. Tanaka needed just 68 pitches to get through six shutout innings, allowing one hit and one walk to go along with four strikeouts.

With no more off-days scheduled, Aaron Boone will need more length from his starter. That might not be a problem for a pitcher that has a 1.32 ERA in seven career playoff starts.

Tanaka has given up exactly two runs in two of his postseason starts. He’s surrendered one run in two starts. In his three other playoff appearances, Tanaka has pitched at least six innings of shutout baseball.

Tanaka gave up two runs in 13 innings against the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. Including the postseason, the 30-year-old has pitched 18 innings against Houston in 2019, allowing three runs and 16 total baserunners.

While Tanaka raises his game in the postseason, Greinke’s October numbers are below-average. Greinke has a career 3.35 ERA in the regular season and a 4.58 ERA in 13 playoff starts.

Greinke’s recent playoff numbers don’t bode well for Houston’s chances in Game 4. After surrendering three runs in six innings in a Game 1 defeat, the veteran has given up at least three runs in five straight playoff starts. He didn’t make it out of the fourth inning in his one ALDS start, surrendering six runs and three home runs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Yankees hit two homers off Greinke, in addition to a few very loud outs. He might be just what New York’s lineup needs in order to get out of their recent funk.

The Astros’ lineup hasn’t been much better. Houston is hitting .173/.274/.316 in the ALCS. They’ve scored more than four runs once in their last seven games. That one game was the ALDS clincher, during which Rays’ starter Tyler Glasnow was tipping his pitching.

Houston appeared to know what James Paxton was throwing in Game 2 when they knocked the left-hander out early in the third inning. It’s clear that the Astros don’t have Tanaka figured out.

Everything is set up for the Yankees to tie the ALCS at 2-2 Thursday night and turn this into a long series.

Game 4 Prediction: New York over Houston, 5-1