Houston Texans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2019: Prediction ATS, Odds, Preview For Saturday NFL Game

The Houston Texans might be the NFL’s most unpredictable team in 2019. They have a tendency to overachieve in their most difficult matchups and come up short in games they’re supposed to win.

It happened again in Week 15 when Houston beat the Tennessee Titans on the road to seize control of the AFC South. With the victory, the Texans improved to 6-2 against the spread as an underdog. Houston has won four of those games straight up, also beating the Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots.

In Week 14, the Texans were upset at home by the Denver Broncos 38-24 in a contest that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score might indicate. Houston is just 1-5 against the spread as a favorite.

The Texans find themselves as road favorites in the first contest on the Week 16 schedule. Houston is laying three points in Saturday afternoon’s matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, according to OddsShark. The over/under is 50.5.

There is plenty on the line for Houston, who can clinch the division title with a victory. If the Texans lose and the Titans beat the New Orleans Saints Sunday, Houston’s Week 17 meeting with Tennessee will determine the AFC South winner.

Saturday’s game is essentially meaningless for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have been eliminated from playoff contention for over a week, though that didn’t stop them from beating the Detroit Lions 38-17 in Week 15.

Tampa Bay is the NFL’s hottest team that isn’t going to the playoffs. They’re on a four-game winning streak with the league’s No.3 offense and Jameis Winston nearing historic numbers.

The Bucs have scored at least 28 points in each of their last four games. Tampa Bay is averaging 31.6 points over a 12-game span. Jameis Winston leads the league with 4,573 passing yards, on pace to throw for the fourth-most yards in a season.

Winston also leads the NFL with 24 interceptions. He’s lost five fumbles this season. The quarterback has 19 turnovers in the team’s seven losses.

Opposing teams have turned many of those takeaways into points. Only the Miami Dolphins are giving up more points per game than Tampa Bay.

Winston’s penchant for throwing interceptions hasn’t gotten better during the winning streak. He’s been picked off six times in the last four games.

Every victory during the Bucs’ winning streak has come against a team that enters Week 16 with a losing record. Tampa Bay is 0-4 against teams that are in the current playoff picture. The Bucs have also been beaten by the Titans, who are favored to make the postseason with the AFC’s final wild-card spot.

The Bucs would’ve had a better chance to play spoiler a few weeks ago when both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were healthy. The receivers rank second and third, respectively, among all players in receiving yards per game.

Evans won’t play Saturday because of a hamstring injury he suffered in Week 14. Godwin left Sunday’s contest with the same injury, and he’s expected to sit against Houston.

No other Bucs’ player has more than 413 receiving yards in 2019.

Houston’s defense has failed them in most of their losses. The Texans have given up at least 30 points in four of their five defeats. The only exception was a 16-10 loss at home against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4.

The Baltimore Ravens beat the Texans 41-7 in Week 11. It’s the only time since Houston played Carolina that they were held to fewer than 20 points.

The Bucs are 30th in pass defense and 27th in passing touchdowns allowed. A hobbled Cam Newton, Nick Foles and David Blough are the only starting quarterbacks that Tampa Bay has held to fewer than 27 points in a game.

Deshaun Watson and Houston’s offense should have their way with Tampa Bay’s secondary. Without their top two receivers, the Bucs might not be able to survive Winston’s mistakes.

Prediction: Houston over Tampa Bay, 35-27