How Many Netflix Customers Will Cancel Subscriptions For Disney Plus?

Is Netflix in trouble? With the increasing popularity of Disney Plus, aided by the pop culture explosion of “The Mandalorian” and its Baby Yoda fad, some are wondering if Disney’s rival streaming platform has made any lasting effect on its longer-lived counterpart. As Netflix leads this year in Golden Globe nominations, Disney bides its time as a host of forthcoming Disney Plus shows could spell Netflix’s end.

With the aid of analysts from Cowen & Co, Variety draws back the curtain over Netflix vs Disney Plus. Is Disney Plus killing Netflix? These analysts believe it is to some small capacity, given Disney’s 24 million subscribers in November alone. Added to the fact that Disney Plus reached over 22 million mobile downloads in its first month, Netflix may have a weighty contender in the form of a multi-billion dollar mouse.

“The incremental churn uptick [for Netflix] appears reasonable given the Disney+ launch, which has been highly publicized and includes various marketing programs, including a Verizon promotion that offers Disney+ for free for one year,” said Cowen’s analysts.

Despite the records and deals, like Verizon’s Disney Plus free trial, Netflix has still maintained a valiant effort against the house of the mouse. Even with the Disney Plus price of only $6.99, Netflix’s monthly fee resting between $8-$16 depending on the subscriber’s plan, seemingly hasn’t deterred subscribers from their “Netflix and chilling.”

The Cowen analysts reason that the streaming wars 2019 will end with only about one million subscribers leaving Netflix for Disney Plus. Oscar contenders and Golden Globe nominees, such as “Marriage Story” and “The Irishman,” have kept Netflix afloat. Despite losing an approximate million customers to Disney, Cowen surmises that Netflix will gain about 500,000 subscribers before the end of 2019.

As Netflix’s domestic numbers seemingly dwindle in recent quarters, it has exploded on an international scale, which will seemingly aid in the Netflix vs Disney Plus showdown. A report released on Monday, Netflix’s first regional breakdown, shows their growing European and Asia-Pacific markets. Disney Plus, on the other hand, is only thus far available in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the U.S., with plans of launching in Africa and Europe in 2020.

As the Cowen analysts explain, though minimally affected by Disney's new streaming platform, Netflix's future "appears manageable" in the long run.