How Much Will Americans Spend For Christmas 2019? Retail Federation Predicting Increase Over 2018

The National Retail Federation predicted about a 4% increase in retail sales for the holidays as the economy continues to grow, albeit more slowly.

The NRF issued its annual forecast Thursday, predicting a 3.8% to 4.2% jump in sales, $727.9 billion to $730.7 billion, compared to 2018 when they grew just 2.9% over 2017 to $707.5 billion.

“There is significant economic unease, but current economic data and the recent momentum of the economy show that we can expect a much stronger holiday season than last year,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Job growth and higher wages mean there’s more money in families’ pockets, so we see both the willingness and ability to spend this holiday season.”

President Trump delayed the start of tariffs on Chinese goods to keep prices lower for the holiday retail sales season. High-level trade talks with Beijing are scheduled for next week in Washington, but Trump has said he would prefer no deal to a bad deal. Tariffs as high as 30% on $200 billion in goods had been scheduled to start Oct. 15 but were postponed ahead of the trade talks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve was expected to hold steady on interest rates for the rest of the year as political turmoil in Washington reverberated through the economy with Democrats gearing up for their impeachment inquiry.

“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”

Armando Roggio of PracticalCommerce.com predicted sales could cluster at the end of the shopping season since buy-online/pick-up-in-store has made last-minute shopping much more attractive, giving shoppers more incentive to wait for last-minute deals.

He also predicted mobile commerce would top 40% of online sales, and Amazon would capture 45% of online sales.

Last year, consumers bought more than $123 billion in merchandise online, $7.87 billion on Cyber Monday alone, BigCommerce.com noted.