IEA Warns Of Exceptionally Low OECD Oil Stocks

Global oil supplies have grown since early 2013, but Organization for Economic Cooperation (OECD) industry stocks declined in last year’s final quarter by the steepest since 1999, the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report for February reported Thursday.

Total OECD industry stocks fell by 56.8 million barrels a day in December, diminishing OECD stock for the final quarter to 1.5 million barrels a day. Total OECD oil stocks were below their five-year average at the end of December.

Global, non-OPEC oil supplies fell by 290,000 barrels a day in January compared to December, to 92.1 million barrels a day, IEA said. But year over year, supplies increased by 1.5 million barrels a day. Non-OPEC output in January 2014 grew by 1.9 million barrels a day from January 2013, and OPEC natural gas liquids from January 2013 exceeded a decrease in OPEC crude production of 390,000 barrels a day. IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply growth for 2014 at 1.7 million barrels a day.

Crude oil supply rose modestly in January by 85,000 barrels a day to about 30 million barrels a day. A partial recovery of Libyan output helped offset a fall in Iraqi production. IEA did not change the “call on OPEC crude and stock change” for the current quarter, leaving the forecast at 29 million barrels a day. But the agency raised its forecast for the year by 0.2 million barrels based on expected higher demand.

OECD oil demand growth rebounded in last year’s second half, but non-OECD countries still accounted for more than 90 percent of the global growth in oil demand last year. IEA expects demand growth to accelerate this year with the global economy.