If NBA Playoff History Holds, Bet The Under In Rockets Vs. Thunder Game 7

Game 7 of the first-round playoff series Wednesday night between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder might not turn out to be the offensive spectacle that many basketball fans would expect to see when James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul are on the same court.

The over/under for Wednesday’s contest is down to 217, according to OddsShark, which compiles betting odds from various sportsbooks. That’s nine points fewer than Game 6 and the lowest total of the entire series.

The Rockets are favored by 5.5 points.

Houston is averaging 111.5 points through six games, reaching the century mark in each contest. Oklahoma City is scoring 104.3 points per contest. The Thunder defeated the Rockets 104-100 Monday to tie the series at 3-3.

The two teams haven’t combined to score more than 204 points in either of the last two games. Westbrook made his series debut in Game 5 after recovering from a quad injury.

The first Game 7 of the 2020 playoffs was anything but an impressive offensive display. The Denver Nuggets survived an 80-78 victory Tuesday night over the Utah Jazz, overcoming a 3-1 series deficit and winning a game that was a complete turnaround from every other contest in the series.

Denver entered Game 7 averaging 115 points per game, scoring fewer than 105 points just once. Utah was scoring 119.3 points per game, reaching the 107-point mark each night.

With increased pressure and so much at stake, just about every shooter went cold, including two of the top performers in the NBA bubble.

Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell had been the early story of the postseason. Each player recorded a pair of 50-point games in the series. Murray totaled 142 points and just five turnovers in Games 4-6. Mitchell was the leading playoff scorer with 38.7 points per game.

The guards combined for 39 points on 43 field-goal attempts in the do-or-die contest.

Recent NBA history is filled with teams that have trouble putting the ball in the basket in Game 7. There have been four Game 7’s since the start of the 2019 playoffs. Not one team has scored more than 100 points in any of those series-deciding contests.

A look at the last six Game 7’s produces one team that scored more than 100 points. The 2018 Golden State Warriors, arguably the greatest team of all time, defeated Houston 101-92 in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Led by superstars Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry, Golden State averaged 108.5 points in the first six games of the series.

Houston infamously missed 27 consecutive three-pointers in the loss.

En route to winning last year’s championship, Kawhi Leonard’s improbable buzzer-beater led the Toronto Raptors past the Philadelphia 76ers 92-90 in Game 7 of the conference semifinals. Before combining to score 182 points in the series finale, the Raptors and 76ers were averaging 203.5 total points per game.

Harden led the league in scoring for a third straight regular season, averaging 34.3 points per game. Westbrook put up 27.2 points per game. In February, the guards became the first pair of teammates to average 30 points and five assists in a calendar month.

But Game 7 is a different animal than any regular-season game. Players seemingly get tight and points are harder to come by, even for the Rockets, who were second in the league with 117.8 points per game prior to the postseason.

"Some guys in the league right now, their regular seasons are different than the playoffs," Michael Jordan told ESPN earlier this year. "Why is that? Because it's a different kind of pressure. Those guys, when it gets stripped down, don't believe in themselves. They aren't sure they can hit the big shot, so they can't. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy."

Houston has the best defensive rating in the playoffs, allowing 101.3 points per 100 possessions. Oklahoma City was seventh in defensive rating during the regular season.

All of that could add up to another sloppy, low-scoring battle in a Game 7.