India, Canada Have Dug Deep Trenches, Getting Out Will Have Political Consequences, Expert Says

Relations between India and Canada crumbled over the past two days following tit-for-tat actions from both sides over the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in June. De-escalation won't be easy, especially with the imminent political consequences of the expulsion of diplomats from both sides.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday accused the Indian government of potential links to the killing of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar – designated by the Indian government as a terrorist – in June in British Columbia, citing "credible allegations" that Canadian intelligence agencies pursued following Nijjar's death.

Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly followed up, saying Ottawa has expelled the head of India's foreign intelligence agency. She did not disclose the official's name.

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) responded in kind Tuesday, saying it summoned the High Commissioner of Canada to inform him about the expulsion of an unnamed "senior Canadian diplomat." New Delhi said the diplomat had five days to leave the country.

Late Tuesday, Trudeau tried to defuse the row by saying that the expulsion of the Indian intelligence chief and the revelations regarding Nijjar's death were not meant "to provoke or escalate." He urged the Indian government to "take this matter with the utmost seriousness."

However, Canada has since updated its travel advisory page, asking its citizens to "exercise a high degree of caution" when traveling to the South Asian nation "due to the threat of terrorist attacks throughout the country." India responded Wednesday, telling Indian travelers, nationals and students in Canada to "exercise utmost caution" due to "growing anti-India activities and politically-condoned hate crimes and criminal violence in Canada."

With tensions flaring and free trade talks already stalled between the countries, "there is no easy fix here," C. Christine Fair, a political scientist, professor of security studies at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, and a former senior resident fellow at the Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis in New Delhi, told International Business Times.

"Both sides have dug deep trenches. Getting out of these trenches any time soon will have political consequences in the near term," she added.

For one, India has long been insisting that some Canadian Sikhs who advocate for the Khalistan movement – a decades-long campaign that seeks to create a homeland for Sikhs out of Punjab – are behind some of the actual terror attacks in India. For Canada and most Western democratic speech protectors, calling for Khalistan is not illegal.

However, "India and Indians more generally find it outrageous," Fair noted. "For Indians, there is no way that this happens without violence," she added.

The most violent events in the Khalistan movement's history took place in 1984. In that same year, former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated by her Sikh bodyguards after she ordered a military raid on Sikhs at the Golden Temple in Amritsar in a bid to contain armed Sikh extremists.

Gandhi's assassination followed days of riots that resulted in the deaths of thousands of Sikhs. Less than a year later, on June 23, 1985, Air India Flight 182 was bombed en route from Toronto to London. All 329 people on board were killed in the terror attack, also called the "Kanishka" bombing.

Canadian authorities raided the homes of Talwinder Singh Parmar, identified as a Sikh militant, and Inderjit Singh Reyat, with Parmar getting acquitted and Reyat convicted for making the Kanishka bomb. Parmar was killed by Indian police in 1992.

New Delhi has, for years, been complaining to Ottawa about Sikh separatists and extremists trying to revive the insurgency. Amid growing tensions, it would still "take a high bar for Canada to act against a Sikh citizen on the basis of Indian intelligence alone," Fair said. Canadian Sikhs, after all, play a crucial role in the country's historical, political, and electoral circles. The community makes up more than 2% of Canada's population, with nearly 800,000 Sikhs, mostly living in Toronto.

There is apparent anger from India directed at Canada following Ottawa's supposed inaction regarding Sikh extremism. "The anger in India at Canada is real and to a great extent justified," Fair said.

Some questioned the Canadian government's silence when a Brampton parade in June featured a recreation of Gandhi's assassination. Trudeau said in 2018 that his country would not support the revival of a separatist movement in India, but he has also repeatedly said he respected free speech and the right to assembly.

Trudeau also voiced support for Indian farmers' protests in 2020 and 2021 over the Modi administration's agricultural reforms. Talking about it, Fair said, "I don't think he really understood what was going on." She added that if the Canadian PM truly wanted to help Indian farmers, he could have instead created agricultural markets within Canada for the farmers' surplus crops. "So, the sense in India was that this was theater for his [Trudeau's] domestic constituents."

On the other hand, India has had a history of "inflated claims in effort to garner more sympathy," Fair pointed out, which could be why there are also concerns about its claims regarding Sikh terrorism. There is also concern among Western democracies that view their criminal justice systems and evidentiary standards as more transparent and accountable than those of India.

Canadian opposition leader Pierre Poilievre has since called on Trudeau to "come clean with the facts" his administration gathered regarding Nijjar's killing. Poilievre said the Canadian leader should provide more "evidence" that drove him to make the public revelations.

Other observers followed suit, saying Trudeau should provide credible evidence soon so people don't deem his public revelations a "political tactic rather than actual concern with the interference."

Meanwhile, Canada paused talks on a proposed free trade deal with India ahead of the G20 Summit in New Delhi. Three months earlier, before Nijjar's death, the two countries said they were looking to sign an initial treaty on free trade.