India's September Inflation Seen Easing to 9.7%

India's wholesale price index probably rose 9.7 percent in September from a year earlier, easing slightly from 9.78 percent in August, a Reuters poll showed.

Forecasts from 25 economists ranged from 9.2 to 9.9 percent.

The WPI is more closely watched than the consumer price index (CPI) in India as it covers a higher number of products.

FACTORS TO WATCH

* India's food price index rose 9.41 percent and the fuel price index climbed 14.69 percent in the year to Sept. 24, government data released last week showed.

* India's central bank raised its key lending rate, the repo rate, by 25 basis points to 8.25 percent last month, in line with expectations, in a campaign that has done more to slow growth than contain near double-digit inflation.

* The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has raised interest rates a dozen times in the past 18 months. However, with inflation at more than twice the bank's comfort level, the RBI had signalled last month that more was to come, confounding expectations that it was coming to the end of its tightening cycle.

* Deepening concerns over the euro zone sovereign debt crisis and slowing global growth are yet to trigger a sustained fall in global commodity prices, including that of crude oil. India imports about 75 percent of its crude requirements.

MARKET IMPACT

* Government bond yields are likely to move up 4-8 basis points if the inflation number breaches the 10-percent mark, while a lower reading, at around 9 percent, could see them ease by 4-6 basis points, dealers said.

* An inflation print at around 9.6-9.75 percent is unlikely to cause any flutter in the market, traders said.

* The overnight indexed swaps (OIS) could mirror the government bond market, dealers said.