Iowa Polls: How Trump, Biden Are Faring In A Swing State With A Key Senate Race

New polls indicate Democratic nominee Joe Biden can potentially flip Iowa in November after Republican President Donald Trump won the red-leaning state in 2016.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points in Iowa, 50%-45%. The survey of 1,256 likely voters was conducted Oct. 1 to Oct. 5, and has a margin of error of 2.8 points.

A poll from Des Moines-based NBC affiliate WHO-TV 13 shows Biden with a slim 2-point lead over Trump, 48%-46%. The survey of 780 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 23 to 26, and has a margin of error of 4 points.

According to poll aggregator Real Clear Politics, Biden has led Trump in three of the last four Iowa polls.

In 2016, Trump saw a landslide win in Iowa over Hillary Clinton, 51.1% to 41.7%. Iowa has trended to Republicans in recent years, as the party has dominated in statewide elections.

However, Iowa is seen as a state that has the potential to swing back to Democrats. Former President Barack Obama won Iowa in both 2008 and 2012. The Cook Political Report rates the presidential race in 2020 as a "toss up." A Morning Consult survey from February showed Trump with a negative net approval rating of 5 points.

It's unclear if Biden or Trump would benefit from stronger voter turnout. Iowa's absentee in-person voting period began Monday and will continue through Nov. 2.

The U.S.-China trade war, along with the COVID-19 pandemic, could be hurting Trump’s chances in a state that relies heavily on agriculture. Trump’s response to a derecho wind storm also drew criticism.

Iowa voters are already familiar with Biden and running mate Kamala Harris after the Democratic caucuses earlier in the year. Biden and Harris both campaigned heavily in the state, with Biden finishing in third place behind Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Biden's wife, Dr. Jill Biden and Harris’ husband, Doug Emhoff, recently campaigned in Iowa.

Former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad is assisting the Trump campaign’s efforts in the state. But the Trump campaign has canceled television ads in Iowa this week to focus on other battleground states.

The fact that Trump “doesn’t have enough money to compete in a fundamental swing state like Iowa tells you they’re really stretched thin from a financial perspective,” Ken Spain, a former National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman, told Politico.

The Biden campaign will reportedly spend $565,000 on advertising over the next week.

Meanwhile, Republican Sen. Joni Ernst faces a formidable challenge from Democrat Theresa Greenfield. The Quinnipiac survey showed Greenfield leading Ernst, 50%-45%.

Ernst, a staunch Trump ally, was elected to the Senate in 2014. Greenfield has centered her campaign on protecting safety net programs such as Social Security.

Cook also rates the race as a “toss up.”

Democrats will need three to four seats to retake the Senate. Other promising Senate races for Democrats include Arizona, Maine, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Montana.