IPO VIEW-Chinese companies best and worst of 2009
* Chinese IPOS were best and worst of 2009
* Chinese IPOs accounted for 17 pct of 2009 U.S. volume
NEW YORK, Dec 31 - Chinese initial public
offerings were some of the best U.S. performers of 2009, but
also some of the worst, which could make underwriters of these
deals more cautious in 2010.
That caution could in turn create opportunities for
investors, experts said.
Pricing on the Chinese deals will come under more scrutiny
and therefore I think you'll see better performance out of the
Chinese stocks in 2010, said Benjamin Howe, chief executive at
investment bank America's Growth Capital.
The underwriters will pound down their pricing more based
on investor pushback and then those stocks will have more room
to move up, Howe added.
U.S. investors were eager to buy shares of Chinese
companies, which accounted for about 17 percent of the U.S.
initial public offering market by number of deals, according to
Thomson Reuters data.
But many portfolio managers were burned by Chinese deals
this year. Shanda Games, which was the first billion-dollar
U.S. IPO in 17 months, was one of the worst performers among
newly listed companies in 2009. Its shares now trade roughly
18.5 percent below their offer price.
The company's performance in the IPO market is a good
example of what went wrong with the worst Chinese deals. Shanda
was carved out of China media company Shanda Interactive
Entertainment Ltd (SNDA.O), and investors were initially very
interested.
The company made an aggressive move: it raised the number
of shares it was selling by a third. The underwriters set the
company's share price at the top of its expected range, but
that left little excess demand for the company's shares, which
meant that instead of surging on the first day of trading, they
dropped 14 percent.
Howe said Shanda's flop would likely lead underwriters to
be more careful with pricing and leave more room for shares to
rise on their first day of trading.
Investors are still interested in Chinese companies. The
country is still growing at a blistering pace relative to the
United States. China's GDP grew at an 8.9 percent annualized
rate in the third quarter, compared with 2.2 percent for the
United States.
And although Shanda flopped, rival gaming company
Changyou.com Ltd (CYOU.O), was one of the very best performers
of 2009. It also priced at the top of its range but its shares
have more than doubled.
AN IFFY BUNCH
But there were a lot more Shandas in 2009 than
Changyou.coms. Only a handful of Chinese IPOs traded up from
their offer price, and most traded down, according to Thomson
Reuters data.
Some of the IPO gains and losses may have more to do with
when they debuted. The S&P500 has trended up since its March
bottom. Companies that launched later in the year may have had
less room to grow as the market rally slowed -- but the
companies going public may also have been weaker.
The first companies to go public in 2009 had to be
especially strong to overcome investor skittishness, said
Richard Truesdell Jr, co-head of the global Capital Markets
Group at law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell.
Those in the middle of the year had a bit more leeway, and
some late debuts struggled as investors closed their books and
locked in profits.
America's Growth Capital CEO Howe expects the larger IPO
market to grow in 2010, but the proportion of deals from
Chinese companies should stay about the same next year, he
said.
But Shanda's weakness is unlikely to kill demand for shares
of Chinese companies, which raised about 6 percent of the
proceeds from U.S. IPOs in 2009, analysts said.
China obviously fits into the investor mindset for growth
and I think you'll definitely continue to see more firms coming
out of that space, said Eric Guja, an analyst with
Connecticut-based research firm Renaissance Capital.
(Reporting by Clare Baldwin, editing by Dan Wilchins and
Matthew Lewis)
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