Iran Protests: How Will They Affect Oil Prices?

Demonstrations in Iran, which began Thursday over a stunted economy and the high price of goods, could have a global impact on oil prices.

Two crude oil benchmarks opened the year above $60 per barrel for the first time since 2014. West Texas Intermediate, one benchmark for crude oil futures, reached its highest level Wednesday since June 2015.

If the protests disrupt the country’s oil production, or if international sanctions on Iran curb their oil exports, it could further spike oil prices. However, David Roche, president of advisory firm Independent Strategy, said on CNBC that until that happens, oil prices are where they should be.

“I think that's another stage down the road. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but it's certainly not something I'm going to bet my little dollars on today. No, I think the oil price is where it should be,” said Roche.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish Bank SEB, told OilPrice.com that the protests are unlikely to affect Iran’s output, but if they did prices could surge.

“As of yet there is no deep-seated concern for a disruption of Iran’s 3.8 [million barrels per day] crude oil production,” said Schieldrop. “However, if it was to happen it would have a huge impact on the global crude oil prices. A full disruption of such a magnitude would immediately drive the Brent crude oil price [a British crude oil index] above the $100 per barrel mark.”

Recent increased demand for oil has cut a surplus, tightening the market. A tighter market could mean more eyes on Iran.

“Geopolitics is going to be much more in focus now that we’re in a tighter market,” Richard Mallinson, an analyst at Energy Aspects, told the Wall Street Journal.

International economic sanctions on Iran were suspended following a 2015 deal that limited the country’s nuclear programs. President Donald Trump, who has intermittently lambasted the Iran nuclear deal, praised the Iranian protests on Twitter.

“Iran is failing at every level despite the terrible deal made with them by the Obama Administration. The great Iranian people have been repressed for many years. They are hungry for food & for freedom. Along with human rights, the wealth of Iran is being looted. TIME FOR CHANGE!” tweeted the president Monday.