Israel-Hamas War May Throw Wrench Into US Efforts To Normalize Ties Between Israel And Arab Nations

As the tremors of the Hamas attack and the Israeli counter-strike are yet to be fully felt beyond the borders of Israel and Gaza, the aftermath of the war could potentially shake Arab-Israeli normalization, which has been a pillar of the United States' Middle East policy.

The Palestine issue was the pivot of regional geopolitics for decades, but some Arab leaders had recently come forward to sidestep the issue to normalize ties with Israel. However, the recent flashpoint in the Israel-Palestine conflict has thrust the issue back into the limelight and left countries of the Arab world taking different stances.

The war has been going on for a week since Hamas fighters stormed Israel by air, land and sea last Saturday, which caught Tel Aviv completely by surprise. In retaliation, Israeli forces have been pummeling Gaza with airstrikes and shelling. Israel said Friday that it attacked 750 "military targets" overnight in the densely populated Gaza Strip.

Gaza's ruling Hamas group urged Palestinian citizens to protest in Al-Aqsa Mosque compound Friday.

"By continuing with its carpet bombing, [Israel] is re-enacting variety of Holocaust in slow motion with the enthusiastic support of the camp that supports it," KP Fabian, former ambassador of India to Qatar, Iran and other countries, told International Business Times.

The camp that supports Israel is fiercely shepherded by the U.S., which has comprehensively supported the country with both military and financial aid following the Hamas attack.

Vivek Mishra, a fellow with Observer Research Foundation's strategic studies program, believes the U.S. backing its staunch ally may dissuade other players from getting involved in the conflict.

The military aid to Israel "control any further regional escalation that could potentially embroil other countries such as Iran and Syria," Mishra told IBT.

"The U.S. military support to Israel plays a critical role in preventing the conflict from spreading beyond the region and discouraging the involvement of other major players like Russia and China," he added. "However, if the conflict expands to involve Iran and Syria, it is likely that Russia will not remain passive but may become involved."

Prior to the Hamas attack, the Biden administration had put considerable efforts into normalizing ties between Israel and Arab nations, especially Saudi Arabia, which has never recognized Israel as a state.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said weeks before the Hamas attack that the two countries were growing "closer" every day but noted that the treatment of Palestinians is still "very important."

However, after the Hamas attack, the "Israeli-Saudi Arabia normalization has been set back by at least months, if not years," Kabir Taneja, an expert on foreign policy, West Asia and counter-terrorism, told IBT.

Saudi Arabia called for de-escalation of the conflict and showed support for a two-state solution in favor of Palestine.

The crown prince "underscored the Kingdom's unwavering stance in standing up for the Palestinian cause and supporting efforts aimed at achieving comprehensive and fair peace that ensures the Palestinian people's legitimate rights," Saudi's foreign ministry said in a statement Thursday.

The crown prince also had a phone call with the president of Iran. Following the Hamas attack, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said they "kiss the hands of those who planned the attack on the Zionist regime."

The Hamas attack is widely unsupported, but the Palestine cause has gotten "a revival of sorts" because of the ongoing violence, Taneja added.

Over the past years, the Palestinian cause somewhat took a backseat due to geopolitical shifts, the regional re-prioritization of domestic economic needs and Washington's push for better ties in the Middle East.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously trivialized the Palestine issue as outdated, saying Arab states looking to establish ties with his country merely saw the issue as a "check box" during discussions.

The U.S.-led "Abraham Accords", signed in September 2020, changed the dynamics in the region and signaled a wider normalization between Israel and the Arab states.

Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, which are signatories of the Abraham Accords, took a more "cautious tone" in their response following the Hamas attack, while countries like Qatar, Oman and Kuwait blamed Israel's policies for the violence.

"If you see the regional perspective, all countries including the Arab countries took different lines. The Bahrainis and the Emiratis in the UAE took a more cautious tone. They said that the revival of the peace processes should be prioritized. They are also trying to save the Abraham Accords. This was something that all of them would have feared at some point," Taneja said. "The Omanis and the Qataris and the Kuwaitis outright blame Israel and Israeli action for what happened."

He noted that Egypt and Jordan appear to have taken a "middle of the path" approach.

"It's been a fracture between supporting the Palestinian cause but also securing your larger strategic interest that go much beyond the Palestine issue now. Earlier it was just the Palestine issue; now it goes beyond. So it's a difficult and tricky business to be in for a lot of these countries," Taneja explained.

Due to the Israel-Hamas war, "the strategic divide in the Middle East with Israel and the Arab countries on the one side and Iran, Syria, Lebanon on the other side will be further deepened," S. Samuel C. Rajiv, author of "The India-Israel Strategic Partnership: Contours, Opportunities and Challenges," told IBT.

"If the Israel-Hamas conflict expands to involve other protagonists, it could lead to a further deterioration of the regional strategic situation. Progress on initiatives like the India Middle East Economic Corridor could be impacted," he said. "There should be no impact on the work of mini-lateral groupings like I2U2 (made up of India, Israel, the U.S. and the UAE). Most of the I2U2 projects relating to food security or clean energy are being established in India, funded by the U.S. or the UAE."

While countries like UAE and Bahrain secure their positions, "they are also very cognizant of the fact that the people, their own populations, are still very pro-Palestine. They can react to this with street protests and street movements and maybe demand that the Abraham Accords be canceled," Rajiv noted.

Rallies to show support for Palestine have taken place across the Middle East region, including in countries like Bahrain, Morocco, Turkey, Yemen, Tunisia and Kuwait, following the eruption of violence.