Jaguars vs. Steelers 2018: Prediction, Betting Odds, Preview For Divisional Playoff Game

It was three months ago when the Jacksonville Jaguars made the rest of the league truly take notice and treat them as a serious playoff contender, defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers in embarrassing fashion at Heinz Field. The AFC South champions return to Pittsburgh Sunday afternoon, hoping to pull off yet another upset, this time in the 2018 NFL playoffs.

Much like they were in the first matchup, the Steelers are heavy favorites over the Jaguars. They are laying 7.5 points, according to the latest betting odds at OddsShark, against a team that handed them a 30-9 loss on their home field.

That win put Jacksonville above .500 and matched their win total from the previous season. The Jaguars went on to go 10-6, recording their first winning season in a decade. They hosted a playoff game on Wild-Card Weekend, beating the Buffalo Bills 10-3.

Pittsburgh has been nearly unbeatable since they hosted Jacksonville. The Steelers almost went undefeated over the final 11 games of the season, suffering their only loss to the New England Patriots because of a controversial call. The AFC North champs are the conference’s No.2 seed, and for many, a rematch with New England in the AFC Championship Game feels inevitable.

The Steelers are heavy favorites for a reason. It didn't take much for the Jaguars to have their best team in a decade after being perennial losers for the last 10 years. This might also be the most well-rounded Pittsburgh team during that span, which included no losing seasons for the Steelers and two trips to the Super Bowl.

Only four teams finished the regular season ahead of Pittsburgh in total defense. They’ve limited opposing passers to an 81.8 passer rating and lead the league with 56 sacks. The Steelers were 10th against the run.

On offense, the Steelers probably have more dangerous weapons than anyone. Future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger gets to throw the ball to Antonio Brown, who led the NFL in receiving after missing the final two weeks of the year. Even after Todd Gurley’s MVP-caliber season, it’d be hard to argue against Le’Veon Bell being the NFL’s best running back, considering he’s averaged 141.9 yards from scrimmage per game over the last two years.

Picking Blake Bortles and the lowly Jaguars to win a playoff game in Pittsburgh would understandably be difficult for many.

But what about that matchup in Week 5? Jacksonville won behind a defense that looked like one of the best units the NFL has seen in years, and it was something the Jaguars did several times in 2017.

Jacksonville opened the season by blowing out the Houston Texans on the road behind 10 sacks and four forced turnovers. Two weeks later, the Jaguars went to London and beat the Baltimore Ravens 44-7, forcing Joe Flacco to post a 12.0 passer rating and have maybe the worst performance of any quarterback this season. The Jaguars held their opponents to 15 points or less in six of nine games they played outside of Jacksonville.

Roethlisberger almost certainly won't throw five interceptions and have two returned for scores Sunday like he did in Week 5. That doesn’t mean the quarterback will have much success in the divisional playoffs, either. The Jaguars led the NFL with a 68.5 opponents’ passer rating, and Jimmy Garoppolo is the only quarterback to post a passer rating in triple digits against Jacksonville.

Leonard Fournette ran for 181 yards when the Jaguars beat the Steelers in October. Pittsburgh finished 27th by allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

As far as Bortles goes, he probably won’t put up big numbers. Jacksonville won their first-round postseason matchup in spite of his 87 passing yards. The quarterback wasn’t much better against Pittsburgh when he completed eight of 14 passes for 95 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.

Bortles has had his moments, though, even against impressive defenses. He posted a 123.7 passer rating in a win over the Seattle Seahawks, as well as a 128.2 rating against Baltimore.

The Jaguars don’t have what it takes to beat the Steelers in a shootout, but they’ve got the defense to win a low-scoring affair. If the final score falls below the over/under of 41, that could mean Jacksonville is headed to the next round.

Prediction: Jacksonville over Pittsburgh, 17-13