Joe Biden, Donald Trump May Not See Large Post-Convention Poll Bounce, Political Analysts Say

Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump may not see a large post-convention bounce in their poll numbers, some political analysts believe.

Presidential conventions tend to be highly social events, with large crowds of attendees cheering speakers during their primetime addresses. This year, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more scaled-down conventions, with the Democratic National Convention being mostly a virtual event.

“It feels to me that the conventions will be much less in terms of a ‘reset’ for the campaign,” Rick Klein, the political director for ABC News in Washington, D.C., told U.S. News & World Report. “The storylines and color that can make conventions compelling to cover – it’s hard to see them materializing this year.”

Harry Enten, a political polling analyst at CNN, believes this year’s race has been relatively stable, with Biden having a consistent lead over Trump in recent polling. This means it is less likely to see a huge post-convention bounce for either candidate.

According to polling aggregator RealClearPolitics, Biden currently has an average lead of nearly 8 points over Trump in the general election.

“Biden's lead has almost consistently been within a few points of 6 points. It's never gotten higher than 10 points in the average and never below 4 points,” Enten said in an article for the news network. He believes that the average convention bounce this year will likely be less than 3 points.

The current political climate is also more polarized than it used to be, meaning post-convention bounces have gotten smaller over the years.

According to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight, Ronald Reagan in 1980 saw an 8-point polling bounce following the Republican National Convention, while incumbent Jimmy Carter saw a 10-point bounce following the Democratic National Convention.

Conventions have been less meaningful since 1980. In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton only saw a bounce of 2 points following the DNC, while Trump saw a bump of 3 points. In the general election, Clinton won by 2.1 percentage points.