Joe Biden Leading Donald Trump In Latest Pennsylvania Polls

Three right-leaning polls released in recent days show presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump in battleground state Pennsylvania.

A Gravis Marketing poll released Saturday showed Biden leading Trump 48%-45%, while a Fox News poll released Friday had Biden leading Trump, 50% to 39%. A poll conducted from July 15-16 by the right-leaning Rasmussen Reports, showed that Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania, 51%-46%.

Of the last 10 polls, all have Biden leading by at little as 3 points and as much as 11 points, according to poll aggregator Real Clear Politics.

Roughly 3.3 million Pennsylvanians have filed for some form of unemployment assistance since the CARES Act passed.

Pennsylvania, which has 20 electoral votes, is considered a crucial state for Trump to carry in 2020. In 2016, Trump edged Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by under 45,000 votes. Prior to 2016, the Democratic nominee had won Pennsylvania in six consecutive elections.

Democrats are seeking a stronger turnout in Philadelphia county in 2020 compared to 2016. In 2012, Barack Obama received 588,806 votes compared to Mitt Romney's 96,467 votes, a margin of 492,339 votes. In 2016, Clinton carried Philadelphia county with 584,025 votes, but Trump fared better than Romney, with 108,748 votes and a better margin of 475,277 votes.

The Pennsylvania polls come as Trump has struggled with high national job disapproval ratings, as the nation grapples with a surge in COVID-19 cases. A Quinnipiac University poll released in mid-July showed Trump with a 60% disapproval rating.

Trump’s handling of the pandemic could hurt his chances in Pennsylvania. As of 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, there are 102,602 confirmed coronavirus cases in Pennsylvania, according to the Centers for Disease Control. The state's death toll is at 7,101.

Biden is considered a favorite to win Pennsylvania, a state where he has strong roots. Biden spent the first 10 years of his life in Scranton, an industrial city in the northeastern part of Pennsylvania. His ties to the rust belt help him win back working-class Pennsylvania voters that went to Trump in the 2016 cycle.