June Qtr Growth Seen Slowing to 7.6 pct y/y

India's economy probably grew an annual 7.6 percent in the quarter through June, slowing from the previous quarter's 7.8 percent growth, the median forecast from a poll of 28 economists showed.

The forecasts ranged from 7.0 percent to 7.8 percent.

FACTORS TO WATCH

* India's industrial output in June grew an annual 8.8 percent from a year earlier, smashing forecasts on the back of a jump in capital goods production.

* Factory growth fell for the third month in a row in July as a long series of interest rate hikes and faltering global demand weighed on new orders and output growth, the latest purchasing managers' index (PMI) data showed.

* Services sector expanded at its fastest clip in three months in July, driven by solid expansion of new business, but input prices also rose faster, an HSBC survey showed this month.

* India's headline inflation eased to 9.22 percent in July, but persistent price pressures in manufactured goods raised the odds that policy will have to stay tight in the economy despite the rising risks to growth.

* The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last month stunned investors by raising interest rates by 50 basis points and indicated to continue with its anti-inflationary stance despite slowing growth in Asia's third-largest economy and uncertainty about global demand.

* The RBI, which has been one of the most aggressive of major central banks in tightening policy, has raised its policy rate 11 times by a total of 325 basis points since March 2010.

* Expectations for interest rate increases in India for the remainder of 2011 jumped by 50 basis points after the last rate hike by the central bank, a Reuters snap poll found last month.

* However, economists are divided whether the RBI will hike rate at its policy review next month after it said mounting global uncertainties have increased risks to growth.

* Monsoon rains, which are vital for boosting farm production and rural incomes in the nation of more than 1.2 billion people, were 8 percent below normal in the week to Aug. 24, losing momentum from 26 percent above normal showers in the previous week.

MARKET IMPACT

* Bond dealers said a June-quarter GDP growth number in the 7.4-7.6 percent range will have little market impact as it was already factored in.

* However, they said a number below 7 percent could push yields down by 4-5 basis points while a number above 7.8 percent could push up yields by 2-3 basis points.

* Swap rates are also seen rising or falling by a maximum 5-7 basis points if the data shows a major deviation from the median.