Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos 2019: Prediction Against The Spread, Odds For Thursday Game

The Kansas City Chiefs began the season with a four-game winning streak, looking like they might run away and hide atop the AFC West. The Denver Broncos didn’t win a single game in the first four weeks, seemingly erasing their playoff hopes in the first quarter of the season.

A lot has changed since the conclusion of Week 4. Kansas City was beaten at Arrowhead Stadium in both Week 5 and Week 6. Denver finds themselves in the midst of a two-game winning streak, suddenly turning the upcoming “Thursday Night Football” matchup into an important one.

The Broncos host the Chiefs to kick off the Week 7 schedule. A win for Denver would put them just a game behind Kansas City in the AFC West.

A loss for the Chiefs could knock them out of first place by the end of the weekend. The Oakland Raiders are only a half-game behind Kansas City in the standings. The Raiders visit the Green Bay Packers Sunday afternoon.

Kansas City is a 3.5-point road favorite at Mile High, according to the latest betting line at OddsShark. The over/under is 49.

Denver was the site of Patrick Mahomes’ first real struggles of the 2018 season. After throwing 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions with three straight passer ratings of 115.5 or higher, the quarterback was limited to one touchdown pass and an 89.5 passer rating in Week 4 of last season.

Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 27-23 comeback victory in Denver. It was the second-lowest passer rating of his MVP season and would be the first of only two games in which he didn’t throw for multiple touchdown passes.

The last few weeks for Mahomes have not exactly gone smoothly. He posted a season-low 81.0 passer rating in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions, leading a touchdown drive in the final minute to avoid an upset. The quarterback was sacked four times in a 19-13 loss at home to the Indianapolis Colts. Mahomes completed a season-low 54.3 percent of his passes for 273 yards Sunday in Kansas City’s 31-24 home loss to the Houston Texans.

The Chiefs’ offensive line hasn’t done a great job of protecting Mahomes. He seems to aggravate his ankle injury every week.

With the way the Broncos’ defense is playing, they’ve certainly got a chance to make Mahomes look human for yet another week. Denver held the Los Angeles Chargers to just 13 points in Week 5. The Broncos shut out the Tennessee Titans 16-0 at home Sunday.

The Broncos sacked Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill seven times, limiting the two quarterbacks to a combined 39.7 passer rating. Philip Rivers had a 58.6 passer rating with two interceptions against Denver.

Of course, none of those quarterbacks are Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs have still managed to score at least 24 points in five of six games. Twenty-four points are the Broncos’ season-high. Denver has scored 20 points or fewer five times this season.

Phillip Lindsay should rack up yards against the NFL’s 30th-ranked run defense. Joe Flacco will actually have some success against the Chiefs’ defense. It just probably won’t be enough to match Mahomes and the Kansas City offense.

This isn’t the same Denver defense that’s ranked among the league’s top units in recent seasons. Before dominating the Titans and Chargers, neither of which boasts a top-20 scoring offense, the Broncos’ defense was rather unimpressive against Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers and Gardner Minshew.

Home-field advantage has meant very little across the NFL this season. That goes especially for the Broncos, who lost their first two home games of the season for the first time in two decades.

Tyreek Hill is back, catching five passes for 80 yards and two touchdowns in his return Sunday. According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Chiefs are optimistic that Sammy Watkins will be back in uniform for Sunday’s game.

Look for the Chiefs to remind the AFC West exactly why they’ve won three straight division titles.

Prediction: Kansas City over Denver, 30-23